Will the Corona Virus impact your hunting plans next fall?

[SilverbulletMAG]

Not changing any of my plans and for any of you savvy investors out there.....great opportunity to BTD! That said, there is a huge difference between chicken little panic mode and sticking your head in the dirt pretending there is nothing to see. And keep politics the heck out of it...the virus is "A-political" and politics on all sides should be left out of it. That is what's making me sick (symptoms are similar - shortness of breath, urge to vomit and or need to reach for TP in a hurry lol) When was the last time countries (plural) had full on lock-downs due to the flu? This is NOT the flu and it's irresponsible to blow it off as "just" that. Like all things in life, there is a balance. I pray we find it....soon.

 

[cohunt]

last US lock-down was in the 60's with small pox, was it not?

 

[YZ-80]

Nope. I'll just rest the .25-06 on the Master Bedroom window sill.

 

[Tensilon]

Many of you guys are missing the point here.... CDC estimates are that 31,000,000 people have been infected with the flu this year in the US and it is not done yet. They estimate the deaths so far this year as somewhere between 12,000-30,000 people. In the 2017-2018 flu season 61,000 deaths linked to the flu in the US. In the 2018-2019 flu season there were 34,200 deaths linked to the flu in the US. We don't know yet what the total of number of persons that will be infected with the flu in the US is but it will certainly be more than the 31,000,000 that have already became infected. Crunch the numbers.... somewhere between 0.0011-0.0019% of people that contracted the flu virus in the US will die. This number is inflated because the total number of people that will have been infected by the flu is still growing. As of today there is somewhere just over 1000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 31 of these people have died. Crunch the numbers..... that means that 0.031 % of the people that have contracted the Covid-19 virus have died in the US.

Mortality Rate
3.1 % of people infected with Covid-19 in the US have died or will probably die
0.11-0.19 % of people infected with the flu have died or will probably die

Does this make it clear enough why the CDC is worried about Covid-19???

Think......
Tens

 

[Deleted member 107796]

There will be no change of plan for us. Looking forward to early and late lope hunts and a real chance of nabbing my prized elk tag.

 

[Deleted member 103481]

You need to move yourdecimal over 2x if you are going to put a % sign. 31/1000 is 3.1%

however it is quite difficult to get tested right now, this number will soon drop at least in the US as confirmed cases skyrocket with increased testing.

 

[Varmint Hunter]

It's Just numbers
right now out of 7.5B people world wide, over 120,000 have contracted the disease and 4300 are dead over just a short 3 month period-- places like Italy have only had it for just under a month and already have 10,000 cases with 600 dead---it has just started here in the US--
From Oct 1, 2019 to Feb 29, 2020 there were an estimated 46.5M cases of the flu in the US with estimated deaths of 36,000--that is .07% death rate-- cant use US covid-19 stats yet as its just starting so Ill use the average numbers worldwide-- CV-19 has a death rate of 3.6%, so currently the CV-19 has a death rate of 5X higher than the flu, and the flu has a vaccine available .

While your reference numbers (CV-19 @ 3.6% / Flu @ .07%) seem to be fairly well acknowledged, your math is off 10 fold. The death rate from Covid-19 is 50X the death rate of the flu, not 5X. Other worldwide statistics indicate that 10% of the confirmed case are categorized as "SERIOUS or DECEASED". Naturally statistics vary depending upon the source.
Covid-19 is not something to take lightly.

 

[Tensilon]

You need to move you're decimal over 2x if you are going to put a % sign. 31/1000 is 3.1%

Of course you are right....thank you.
Tens

 

[Varmint Hunter]

You need to move you're decimal over 2x if you are going to put a % sign. 31/1000 is 3.1%

however it is quite difficult to get tested right now, this number will soon drop at least in the US as confirmed cases skyrocket with increased testing.

While this is true, the same could be said of the flu virus statistics. The confirmed flu cases are based on positive tests in doctor's offices. Most people with the flu take over-the-counter meds and stay home.

 

[SilverbulletMAG]

last US lock-down was in the 60's with small pox, was it not?

Correct, not flu.

 

[YZ-80]

It's awesome that you can learn about epidemiology on this Forum too. I work in Infectious disease and now, if my boss catches me on the LRH forum on the clock, I'll have the excuse that it's work related!

 

[Deleted member 103481]

While this is true, the same could be said of the flu virus statistics. The confirmed flu cases are based on positive tests in doctor's offices. Most people with the flu take over-the-counter meds and stay home.

Sorry yes I was only using it as an example it applies for all.

 

[crystalgayleguy]

I think you only have to worry about at sporting events concerts and maybe gun shows and conventions

 

[cohunt]

While your reference numbers (CV-19 @ 3.6% / Flu @ .07%) seem to be fairly well acknowledged, your math is off 10 fold. The death rate from Covid-19 is 50X the death rate of the flu, not 5X. Other worldwide statistics indicate that 10% of the confirmed case are categorized as "SERIOUS or DECEASED". Naturally statistics vary depending upon the source.
Covid-19 is not something to take lightly.

correct, I finger fudged and missed the .0 on the calculator when doing the division-- I am in the same boat as you on this and see the "extremely high" death rates as something to keep an eye on--I was just trying to show numbers for people and not influence with my own opinions--I will fix the numbers in my post, thanks


In comparison, the Variola Major form of small pox had a death rate of 30%