Increasing Accuracy Through Estimate Predicition

MMERSS

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Increasing accuracy through esimate prediction.

What does this mean? Is this the same as predicting accuracy?
 

jfseaman

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That is one heck if a mouthful.

A quick search provided me with a reminder from the past. I don't think it relates to ballistics. I guess it could but it is more connected with statistical analysis and "accuracy" of a prediction. Like the accuracy of targeted advertising.

What you say, I thought that targeted advertising went the way of the Dodo. Not so Will Robinson. Facebook, Google and lots of others collect "anonymous" data about you and alter the advertisements presented. Trying to "predict" with "accuracy" those that will get you to follow the ad.

For me, going back to the 90's with this work, an advertisement has to be well presented and "accurate" to my interests to even enter my consciousness. I did not develop the algorithms I worked on support and implementation. Amongst lots of other things.
 

MMERSS

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Hmmmm... where'd ya run across that title?
I don’t believe this is a title as opposed to more of an analytical process.

I don't think it relates to ballistics. I guess it could but it is more connected with statistical analysis and "accuracy" of a prediction.
If it did relate to shooting couldn't this include the “accuracy” with predicting shooting?
 

jfseaman

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If it did relate to shooting couldn't this include the “accuracy” with predicting shooting?
Are you mixing statistical modeling based prediction with physics based?

Internal ballistics programs like QuickLoad and dot Load try to predict velocity and pressure but it is from physics not statistics.

Optimal Barrel Timing tries to predict the velocity needed to reach an accuracy node but it is from physics not statistics.

Drop charges predict just that plus the adjustments required for the sighting system. Physics.

What are you trying to predict?

From that you need to determine what elements you need for your model.

That presents the data collection requirements.

Examples:

Your credit score is used to predict the likelihood that you will repay debt and that a creditor will make money in the process. The scoring companies collect debt and payment information, age, job, location etc.. That goes into a modeling program, you are compared against the model and a prediction is spit out.

Your insurance tries to predict the likelihood that you will have an incident for which you have insurance. Same, age, driving distance, health histories, accident histories and spits out rates.

and it goes on and on.

Like I said, I didn't do the algorithms. I'm not a statistician or actuary and I never played one on TV.

I probably forgot more than I know because when I think about the insurance models I used to run stuff comes out that I no longer need to know.

There may be a way that statistical modeling can improve internal and external physics modeling but again, what data and how to get it.
 

MMERSS

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What are you trying to predict?
The pot of gold at the end of the rainbow!

If modeling or a solver could predict shooting accuracy that information would be invaluable to the long range hunter. Could the modeling predict success or failure and to what degree? For example, if modeling could predict a 33% chance for success, one could use this information to determine how many rounds will need to be placed aside to achieve a desired outcome. In this case 3 rounds. If modeling predicts a 95% chance or higher success, one could assume only one round should be needed to achieve the desired outcome. This information could provide a path to what we seek.....shooting success!

There may be a way that statistical modeling can improve internal and external physics modeling but again, what data and how to get it.
What data would be needed for such a model or analyzer and how would one use instrumentation and/or estimates to “accurately” predict a chance for success or failure before a shot is ever taken?



 

jfseaman

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The pot of gold at the end of the rainbow!

If modeling or a solver could predict shooting accuracy that information would be invaluable to the long range hunter. Could the modeling predict success or failure and to what degree? For example, if modeling could predict a 33% chance for success, one could use this information to determine how many rounds will need to be placed aside to achieve a desired outcome. In this case 3 rounds. If modeling predicts a 95% chance or higher success, one could assume only one round should be needed to achieve the desired outcome. This information could provide a path to what we seek.....shooting success!
If the goal is to predict hunting success, you will need a lot of different data points on every hunt undertaken. Same as every "click" or "page" seen. Can you get that kind of data about all the hunts?
What data would be needed for such a model or analyzer and how would one use instrumentation and/or estimates to “accurately” predict a chance for success or failure before a shot is ever taken?
You would need to hook every hunter and rifle to the internet. Collect all the internal and external ballistics and human metrics.
 

J E Custom

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If accuracy prediction is what you are after I have a way (Not 100% but close) to predict an accurate
rifle. It is more like a formula and this is the way it goes.

Purchas all the best components, Add a good Gun Smith, load the best ammo possible and practice
as much as you can.

The results will normally be very good and accuracy will be predictable.

SORRY, HAD TO HAVE A LITTLE FUN and I had to do that after reading the post (Two Cups of coffee
and working on the third one before I "Think" I have it.

Just Having a little fun

J E CUSTOM
 

roninflag

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yes. start with krieger barrel. go forward from there. the increasing, accuracy , and prediction will be estimated through this technique.
 

MMERSS

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If accuracy prediction is what you are after I have a way (Not 100% but close) to predict an accurate
rifle. It is more like a formula and this is the way it goes.

Purchas all the best components, Add a good Gun Smith, load the best ammo possible and practice
as much as you can.

The results will normally be very good and accuracy will be predictable.

SORRY, HAD TO HAVE A LITTLE FUN and I had to do that after reading the post (Two Cups of coffee
and working on the third one before I "Think" I have it.

Just Having a little fun

J E CUSTOM
It’s great you’re having fun with this. Accuracy prediction was the intent of the topic by use of a solver. Precision as some have posed seem to surface with most topics even when not the subject.

To add to a little more fun, take the word-record related post. If a hunter could repeat this exact group with relation to center while hunting white-tailed deer the center of the group looks to be about 9-10 inches high. A hunter would have made 5 inaccurate shoots with a potential world record setting hunting rifle. At the end of half-time hunter 0 and deer 5. Now that would be fun to watch, right?

The best built guns by the best smiths contribute to precision. Accuracy and precision are often mistakenly interchanged with each other just as often as muzzle brake and muzzle break.

Wouldn’t you agree a hunter, especially one that doesn’t practice in all conditions likely to be encountered during a hunt, could use the benefit of a solver to predict a chance of success?
 

J E Custom

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It’s great you’re having fun with this. Accuracy prediction was the intent of the topic by use of a solver. Precision as some have posed seem to surface with most topics even when not the subject.

To add to a little more fun, take the word-record related post. If a hunter could repeat this exact group with relation to center while hunting white-tailed deer the center of the group looks to be about 9-10 inches high. A hunter would have made 5 inaccurate shoots with a potential world record setting hunting rifle. At the end of half-time hunter 0 and deer 5. Now that would be fun to watch, right?

The best built guns by the best smiths contribute to precision. Accuracy and precision are often mistakenly interchanged with each other just as often as muzzle brake and muzzle break.

Wouldn’t you agree a hunter, especially one that doesn’t practice in all conditions likely to be encountered during a hunt, could use the benefit of a solver to predict a chance of success?

I did not mean to offend, and just to clear up some of my comments,The equation that prevents a repeat of such a group is almost always the shooter. No shooter should go to the field with a rifle that shoots 6" high at the distance he intends to hunt,unless he has the skills to compensate and get a center mas POI.

The best rifle in the world will rarely repeat its best group, not because it cant, but because the shooter element is not that consistent.

In My Opinion the only way to predict accuracy is with a very good knowledge of what your weapon
Is capable of and lots of practice so you wont let the rifle or the game down.

Lack of practice is the most common reason for failure. I also don't believe in taking low percentage shots. I for one don't attempt a shot that I am not sure I can make. Based on my equipment and
skill level. Some of the shots I pass on could be done by better shooters and would not be low percentage shots to them. So It becomes a personal call.

I have lots of rifles that will OUT shoot me and that's the way I like it because I cant blame the rifle for a failure that I could have prevented buy more practice or higher standards. But also occasionally everyone has a day that they cant do anything right so predicting a accuracy every time you go hunting or to the range would be nearly impossible.

I consider this sport (Long Range Hunting) Similar to bow hunting. It takes good equipment and good skills through practice. There is no free ride.

Just my opinion

J E CUSTOM
 

MMERSS

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Messages
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I did not mean to offend, and just to clear up some of my comments,The equation that prevents a repeat of such a group is almost always the shooter. No shooter should go to the field with a rifle that shoots 6" high at the distance he intends to hunt,unless he has the skills to compensate and get a center mas POI.

The best rifle in the world will rarely repeat its best group, not because it cant, but because the shooter element is not that consistent.

In My Opinion the only way to predict accuracy is with a very good knowledge of what your weapon
Is capable of and lots of practice so you wont let the rifle or the game down.

Lack of practice is the most common reason for failure. I also don't believe in taking low percentage shots. I for one don't attempt a shot that I am not sure I can make. Based on my equipment and
skill level. Some of the shots I pass on could be done by better shooters and would not be low percentage shots to them. So It becomes a personal call.

I have lots of rifles that will OUT shoot me and that's the way I like it because I cant blame the rifle for a failure that I could have prevented buy more practice or higher standards. But also occasionally everyone has a day that they cant do anything right so predicting a accuracy every time you go hunting or to the range would be nearly impossible.

I consider this sport (Long Range Hunting) Similar to bow hunting. It takes good equipment and good skills through practice. There is no free ride.

Just my opinion

J E CUSTOM
Have you ever used a solver to “predict” an outcome? In other words, used a program to determine where a shot will land (hit) assuming the information required for the solver is properly measured/estimated/applied and input correctly. How many hunters use a ballistics program to compute drop then follow up with calibration to verify the drop? Is using a program to compute drop backed by science much different than the concept of using a solver to predict first round hit percentage?

I would agree practice is the best method to “predict accuracy.” Unfortunately, for as much as I would like I just can’t afford the time to practice for every hunting situation I may encounter.

By definition, prediction will always be a guess. Some “guesses” will be backed by science. Other “predictions” by will be backed by practice, while the remaining a combination of both or completely “something else.”

BTW, no offense taken. And thanks for the response backed by YOUR reasoning!
 

J E Custom

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Have you ever used a solver to “predict” an outcome?

Absolutely !!! I think every serous shooter/Hunter uses everything in there tool belt to achieve the best shot possible. But with all of the tools we have it still must come down to confidence in your calculations and skill and the decision to shoot is based on all the factors you have at hand.

My belief is that practice and skill have a major role in a high success % and no program will replace the need for practicing and improving your skills at inputting data and interpreting them and then applying them with confidence.

Just an opinion

J E CUSTOM
 
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