Message from President of Federal

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JakeC

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yes covid is only a year old but 9-11 was how long ago. just another shortage with the same excuses
how many times you going to smash your thumb hammering nails before you learn to move it?
how many shortages do we have to deal with before they make changes?
keep doing the same thing expecting different results is the definition of insanity
You're not wrong, but the changes you're talking about, having a strategic 2-5 year stockpile at all times, would require either government intervention or substantially higher prices in order to increase capacity beyond the normal. Both of those are worse.
 

can1010

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I hope people realize with there purchase of Remington they now control 3/4 of the domestic primer production what is left Winchester. dont know why there is not any European imports we still get powder.
if they now control so much they have to do better we deserve better
 

JakeC

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Messages
117
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I hope people realize with there purchase of Remington they now control 3/4 of the domestic primer production what is left Winchester. dont know why there is not any European imports we still get powder.
if they now control so much they have to do better we deserve better
That IS true
 

yorke-1

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1,350
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WA
I hope people realize with there purchase of Remington they now control 3/4 of the domestic primer production what is left Winchester. dont know why there is not any European imports we still get powder.
if they now control so much they have to do better we deserve better

It seems unreasonable to demand "better" from a private company unless there's a safety concern.

I'd be willing to bet that the reason you're not seeing as many European primers is because of that whole disruption of the global supply chain. Maybe the European companies should have planned better too.

If you're not happy with the product or service the manufacturers are offering, just go somewhere else. In this case, that means Winchester. Funny thing though, I haven't heard anything from Winchester about what they're doing to fight component shortages......
 

can1010

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Joined
Feb 27, 2012
Messages
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It seems unreasonable to demand "better" from a private company unless there's a safety concern.

I'd be willing to bet that the reason you're not seeing as many European primers is because of that whole disruption of the global supply chain. Maybe the European companies should have planned better too.

If you're not happy with the product or service the manufacturers are offering, just go somewhere else. In this case, that means Winchester. Funny thing though, I haven't heard anything from Winchester about what they're doing to fight component shortages......
you need to adopt a more yes I can, lets get it done attitude instead of the deep state politician blow smoke, make excuses, smile for the camera but nothing ever changes attitude.
we need to demand better we are not a door mat to be just walked on
 

Another Casual

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352
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Colorado
you need to adopt a more yes I can, lets get it done attitude instead of the deep state politician blow smoke, make excuses, smile for the camera but nothing ever changes attitude.
we need to demand better we are not a door mat to be just walked on

"Deep state politician blowing smoke"?

They said they were producing more product than ever but are unable to meet demand. It seems reasonable that they're not staffed/equipped for the absolute highest volume they've seen. I'd rather they be in business in five years than take on a ton of debt for production capacity that won't be needed when this temporary spike in demand subsides.

This isn't a matter of a "yes I can attitude" or cross training a few employees to make the customer happy, the amount of infastructure and capital required to meet this demand would be a burden in any other year. Trust me, they want to make more money, but you have to be reasonable and consider the long term as well.
 

can1010

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Joined
Feb 27, 2012
Messages
1,078
"Deep state politician blowing smoke"?

They said they were producing more product than ever but are unable to meet demand. It seems reasonable that they're not staffed/equipped for the absolute highest volume they've seen. I'd rather they be in business in five years than take on a ton of debt for production capacity that won't be needed when this temporary spike in demand subsides.

This isn't a matter of a "yes I can attitude" or cross training a few employees to make the customer happy, the amount of infastructure and capital required to meet this demand would be a burden in any other year. Trust me, they want to make more money, but you have to be reasonable and consider the long term as well.
exactly my point always an excuse.
 

flyguy1

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Oct 17, 2015
Messages
325
Location
Montana
You know, this discussion basically breaks down to those who have been responsible for making long-term capital investments and those who have not. We are in a very volatile political environment right now, the pandemic is worsening, and there's a very real likelihood "nonessential" businesses might be shuttered again, at least that's what Joe hinted at during his campaign.

This would be a terrible time to build a new factory.
 

orkan

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Decide who you are.

Allow me to provide some perspective. Once upon a time we sold modular switch-barrel rifle systems. Easiest barrel changes in the world. We were the #1 or #2 distributor of those things in the country for several years. The conversations I'd have with customers would lead me to believe they shot "a lot." Yet, in all my time providing those rifles, do you know how many of those customers required a re-barrel?

One.

That's right... hundreds of barrels sold, and we had one re-barrel across nearly 7 years. Maybe 2... but I think it was just one. I just talked to a customer a month or so ago whom I sold a rifle to in 2015. He called to inquire about load data, because he was going to take it out and shoot it for the first time... 5 years later. A $6000 custom precision rifle... and it's just now going to get used. Not anything wrong with it, and I don't think less of those folks... but it's just some perspective. Many of those conversions were sold in SUPER hot cartridges like 22 Creedmoor or 22-243win. Big magnums to include wildcats based on 338LM cases necked to 7mm. Plenty of 6.5 Creedmoor as well as other cartridges that should see a heavy firing schedule for those "competition shooters." Alas, virtually no one put enough rounds on their rifles to require a re-barrel.

The perspective I'm trying to offer is the fact that people simply do not shoot as much as they claim to. This is especially true for handloaders. Shooting is an important part of their life, and they love it... but the actual act of shooting isn't the main draw for most. Instead, they like the social aspects and the new discoveries. The new experiences they have when they buy a new rifle. I know so many people that almost never shoot, but they are in a constant state of "building" their next rifle. Once it's finished, they'll sell it or shelf it, and start the process up again. They get to feel involved, current, relevant, and "knowledgeable."

Overnight, people went from buying 100 primers at a time, to 10,000 at a time. Primer manufacturers know what I know: Most of those people are not going to shoot those primers. Especially when everyone's hoarding. Those primers will sit on their shelves and they'll be happy because they have them, but they will not be shot.

So here's what's going to happen. As soon as the "rush" wears off, people are going to stop buying primers. Primers will start showing up on store shelves again. After that, primers will be found piling up absolutely everywhere. Then, the prices of primers on the shelves will continue to drop. Still no one will buy them... because everyone already has a ton from the panic buying they did. Then they'll look at the pile of primers they bought, and be concerned about all the room they are taking up in their reloading closet... and they'll start trying to sell them, further saturating the market. Prices will be rock bottom, availability will be sky high... and that's exactly where it will stay until the next "panic."

So why would a manufacturer invest in new equipment when they've already seen how shooters behave enmasse over the last 40 years of these cycles in demand? They know that right on the other side of this rush, there will be the lowest demand imaginable. Those of us that have been around a while have seen this play out over and over again. Look at AR15's. During the obama panic, the cheapest AR you could buy was about $1500, and it was a real pile of trash. Prior to all this starting up again I could buy a complete AR with several accessories for $500. I saw some being sold for $385. A complete fully functional AR15 in .223 for $385. I watched AR15 manufacturers that started up at the beginning or during the panic, filing for bankruptcy left and right. Sitting on shipping containers full of AR15's that were essentially worthless when weighed against the cost of the machines sitting idle on their shop floor. Literal pallets of lower receivers in various states of completion being auctioned off by their lending institutions who lost big while they peddle what was left of the corpse of that company. They just couldn't hang on until the next panic. That's bad business strategy folks.

That same fate is exactly what awaits a primer manufacturer startup right now. By the time they catch their stride, this will all be over and the American shooters will leave them to fail. The cycle will continue.

If you want this to change, then I suggest some of you evaluate your firing schedule. I shoot purposeful precision rifle rounds every single day. If there is legitimate demand which doesn't subsequently cause a very predictable surplus... the manufacturers will respond. They will have a fiduciary duty to do so. Just as that duty demands they act responsibly right now. The reality of the situation is not what reading forums would have you believe it is. The political turmoil and uncertainty facing the firearms industry is not a prompt to go taking big risks. Rather, it is a time to pay very close attention and make moves which can be fully supported.

Scalpers will ensure this panic continues as long as possible. So long as someone can buy 1000 primers for $50 and sell them for $500, there will be no possibility of manufacturers being able to provide enough. No matter what they produce, scalpers will buy. So long as people continue to purchase at inflated prices, this will continue. It is the quintessential definition of capitalism. American shooters tend to forget the predictable ramifications of their behaviors. They don't understand the power of their purchases. In previous years, Federal/CCI sees American shooters buying foreign primers in huge quantities for the sake of saving $1 per thousand. Even if it were $20 per thousand, we are taking food directly off the plate for our American companies which will have the direct result of them being forced to cut back manufacturing due to reduced demand. Then a panic hits and everyone wants to get mad at them for not having enough to supply us all. It's fascinating to me.

This is a problem of our own creation, as is so often the case in this country. Each shooter, needs to honestly evaluate what part they are playing. Understand the power of your choices. While some of you may not be entrepreneurs or business people... if you just stop to think for a moment at all, you may discover you play a larger role than you realize. Personal accountability. Individual free will and the power to choose. The most essential core principle of what this country was founded on... yet so many people want to do as they please and then get upset at the extremely predictable consequences of those choices. If we want things to change as a whole, then we must be willing to change at the individual level. If you are unwilling to do that, then it will be difficult for me to offer any sympathy. Over a year ago, I was instructing people to buy 25,000 primers of each type they require. I bought 100,000 of all types for myself. As I shoot tens of thousands a year... I figured that should take me through the next panic, and it will. The shelves were FLUSH with primers. I told all of the shooters I mentor, and any customer that asked, to buy as much powder and as many primers and other components as they could afford. Supply was plentiful, and competitively priced. I spoke of rewarding our awesome American companies for their investment in us. Buy piles of components, shoot constantly! Some listened... others did not.

Now we stand in yet another panic portion of the cycle. Emotions once again run high... just as the clinton panic, and the obama panic. This biden panic will go just like the previous panics. Though I'm left to wonder if anyone plans to learn anything. Is anyone is looking within themselves for the solutions to their problems? Is everyone just going to point fingers and try to assign blame, just like the previous panics? If we want this to stop... just stop buying components at inflated prices. Patently refuse to pay even $1 more than "normal" prices for anything. Quit letting FOMO (fear of missing out) direct your life. If you made the mistake of not stocking up because you're new, or didn't see this coming... just embrace the mistake. Say to yourself, "well, this is unfortunate... I'm going to do better next time," and calmly shift your focus for the short term. If you still want to shoot, go buy a quality air rifle, a bunch of great accessories for it, and as many pellets/slugs as you think you'll need to see it through. These days, air rifles are made in nearly any variety and can kill just about anything living. That will scratch your itch and allow you to ply your skillset until the dust settles from all this. If that is impossible... take up archery! Anything to keep you from falling victim to scalpers and their highly destructive artificial market manipulation. Starve the scalpers, literally. That's the power of capitalism. They can only benefit if we let them. They are predators, in it for the love of money, not the love of shooting. Once we hit the other end of the cycle, you apply what you've learned... and never forget it. Teach it to others. When the manufacturers are sitting on a massive supply that they are dying to move... help them. Buy all you will need to see you through the next super-predictable panic, which as sure as I'm alive, WILL happen.

Do not be mad at the manufacturers, and mad at your fellow shooters that were wise enough to stock up in advance of this surge in demand. Instead, revel in this opportunity to learn through your own first hand experience of the relationship between individual micro-economic choices and the macro-economic trends it creates across time. You are living it, right now. Pay attention. Gather information. Learn what has happened. Be present so you may watch the subtleties of this as it unfolds. Share that information with your fellow shooters on platforms such as this one. That knowledge and experience is invaluable and infinite in its power. Do not have fear of missing out, because you already missed out. It's done. The train left the station, and you weren't on it. You weren't on the platform in time because you didn't clock the schedule. You weren't paying attention. So because it's gone already, there is no sense in having fear or anger or any other negative emotion. That is irrational. Instead, become a detective. Embrace the fact that you missed out and embrace the fact that it is definitely your fault. Then set things in motion to ensure that will not happen in the future. Stop being someone that life "happens" to, and make your life what you want it to be. If you want to shoot, you're gonna need primers. Start planning for the future. Make decisions which work toward realistic goals.

Decide who you are. Are you a rifleman? Are you a fisherman? Are you a plumber? Are you an accountant? Are you a biker? If you're a rifleman, then sell your boat, your bikes, your kayaks, your lake cabin, and the rest of the things that do not serve who you are. Streamline your life to serve you rather than trying to keep up with the Jones'. Then the next time that surplus cycle comes around, you'll be cash flush and ready to capitalize on the investment you made into your future a long time ago. If you decide you are a fisherman... those of us that decided we are riflemen won't have pity when you want to switch your role in the middle of a panic. Either you squirreled nuts away all summer to withstand the winter, or you starve. Nature's laws apply to men as well as beasts.

Decide who you are.
 

West Calamus

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 23, 2019
Messages
269
Location
texas
Decide who you are.

Allow me to provide some perspective. Once upon a time we sold modular switch-barrel rifle systems. Easiest barrel changes in the world. We were the #1 or #2 distributor of those things in the country for several years. The conversations I'd have with customers would lead me to believe they shot "a lot." Yet, in all my time providing those rifles, do you know how many of those customers required a re-barrel?

One.

That's right... hundreds of barrels sold, and we had one re-barrel across nearly 7 years. Maybe 2... but I think it was just one. I just talked to a customer a month or so ago whom I sold a rifle to in 2015. He called to inquire about load data, because he was going to take it out and shoot it for the first time... 5 years later. A $6000 custom precision rifle... and it's just now going to get used. Not anything wrong with it, and I don't think less of those folks... but it's just some perspective. Many of those conversions were sold in SUPER hot cartridges like 22 Creedmoor or 22-243win. Big magnums to include wildcats based on 338LM cases necked to 7mm. Plenty of 6.5 Creedmoor as well as other cartridges that should see a heavy firing schedule for those "competition shooters." Alas, virtually no one put enough rounds on their rifles to require a re-barrel.

The perspective I'm trying to offer is the fact that people simply do not shoot as much as they claim to. This is especially true for handloaders. Shooting is an important part of their life, and they love it... but the actual act of shooting isn't the main draw for most. Instead, they like the social aspects and the new discoveries. The new experiences they have when they buy a new rifle. I know so many people that almost never shoot, but they are in a constant state of "building" their next rifle. Once it's finished, they'll sell it or shelf it, and start the process up again. They get to feel involved, current, relevant, and "knowledgeable."

Overnight, people went from buying 100 primers at a time, to 10,000 at a time. Primer manufacturers know what I know: Most of those people are not going to shoot those primers. Especially when everyone's hoarding. Those primers will sit on their shelves and they'll be happy because they have them, but they will not be shot.

So here's what's going to happen. As soon as the "rush" wears off, people are going to stop buying primers. Primers will start showing up on store shelves again. After that, primers will be found piling up absolutely everywhere. Then, the prices of primers on the shelves will continue to drop. Still no one will buy them... because everyone already has a ton from the panic buying they did. Then they'll look at the pile of primers they bought, and be concerned about all the room they are taking up in their reloading closet... and they'll start trying to sell them, further saturating the market. Prices will be rock bottom, availability will be sky high... and that's exactly where it will stay until the next "panic."

So why would a manufacturer invest in new equipment when they've already seen how shooters behave enmasse over the last 40 years of these cycles in demand? They know that right on the other side of this rush, there will be the lowest demand imaginable. Those of us that have been around a while have seen this play out over and over again. Look at AR15's. During the obama panic, the cheapest AR you could buy was about $1500, and it was a real pile of trash. Prior to all this starting up again I could buy a complete AR with several accessories for $500. I saw some being sold for $385. A complete fully functional AR15 in .223 for $385. I watched AR15 manufacturers that started up at the beginning or during the panic, filing for bankruptcy left and right. Sitting on shipping containers full of AR15's that were essentially worthless when weighed against the cost of the machines sitting idle on their shop floor. Literal pallets of lower receivers in various states of completion being auctioned off by their lending institutions who lost big while they peddle what was left of the corpse of that company. They just couldn't hang on until the next panic. That's bad business strategy folks.

That same fate is exactly what awaits a primer manufacturer startup right now. By the time they catch their stride, this will all be over and the American shooters will leave them to fail. The cycle will continue.

If you want this to change, then I suggest some of you evaluate your firing schedule. I shoot purposeful precision rifle rounds every single day. If there is legitimate demand which doesn't subsequently cause a very predictable surplus... the manufacturers will respond. They will have a fiduciary duty to do so. Just as that duty demands they act responsibly right now. The reality of the situation is not what reading forums would have you believe it is. The political turmoil and uncertainty facing the firearms industry is not a prompt to go taking big risks. Rather, it is a time to pay very close attention and make moves which can be fully supported.

Scalpers will ensure this panic continues as long as possible. So long as someone can buy 1000 primers for $50 and sell them for $500, there will be no possibility of manufacturers being able to provide enough. No matter what they produce, scalpers will buy. So long as people continue to purchase at inflated prices, this will continue. It is the quintessential definition of capitalism. American shooters tend to forget the predictable ramifications of their behaviors. They don't understand the power of their purchases. In previous years, Federal/CCI sees American shooters buying foreign primers in huge quantities for the sake of saving $1 per thousand. Even if it were $20 per thousand, we are taking food directly off the plate for our American companies which will have the direct result of them being forced to cut back manufacturing due to reduced demand. Then a panic hits and everyone wants to get mad at them for not having enough to supply us all. It's fascinating to me.

This is a problem of our own creation, as is so often the case in this country. Each shooter, needs to honestly evaluate what part they are playing. Understand the power of your choices. While some of you may not be entrepreneurs or business people... if you just stop to think for a moment at all, you may discover you play a larger role than you realize. Personal accountability. Individual free will and the power to choose. The most essential core principle of what this country was founded on... yet so many people want to do as they please and then get upset at the extremely predictable consequences of those choices. If we want things to change as a whole, then we must be willing to change at the individual level. If you are unwilling to do that, then it will be difficult for me to offer any sympathy. Over a year ago, I was instructing people to buy 25,000 primers of each type they require. I bought 100,000 of all types for myself. As I shoot tens of thousands a year... I figured that should take me through the next panic, and it will. The shelves were FLUSH with primers. I told all of the shooters I mentor, and any customer that asked, to buy as much powder and as many primers and other components as they could afford. Supply was plentiful, and competitively priced. I spoke of rewarding our awesome American companies for their investment in us. Buy piles of components, shoot constantly! Some listened... others did not.

Now we stand in yet another panic portion of the cycle. Emotions once again run high... just as the clinton panic, and the obama panic. This biden panic will go just like the previous panics. Though I'm left to wonder if anyone plans to learn anything. Is anyone is looking within themselves for the solutions to their problems? Is everyone just going to point fingers and try to assign blame, just like the previous panics? If we want this to stop... just stop buying components at inflated prices. Patently refuse to pay even $1 more than "normal" prices for anything. Quit letting FOMO (fear of missing out) direct your life. If you made the mistake of not stocking up because you're new, or didn't see this coming... just embrace the mistake. Say to yourself, "well, this is unfortunate... I'm going to do better next time," and calmly shift your focus for the short term. If you still want to shoot, go buy a quality air rifle, a bunch of great accessories for it, and as many pellets/slugs as you think you'll need to see it through. These days, air rifles are made in nearly any variety and can kill just about anything living. That will scratch your itch and allow you to ply your skillset until the dust settles from all this. If that is impossible... take up archery! Anything to keep you from falling victim to scalpers and their highly destructive artificial market manipulation. Starve the scalpers, literally. That's the power of capitalism. They can only benefit if we let them. They are predators, in it for the love of money, not the love of shooting. Once we hit the other end of the cycle, you apply what you've learned... and never forget it. Teach it to others. When the manufacturers are sitting on a massive supply that they are dying to move... help them. Buy all you will need to see you through the next super-predictable panic, which as sure as I'm alive, WILL happen.

Do not be mad at the manufacturers, and mad at your fellow shooters that were wise enough to stock up in advance of this surge in demand. Instead, revel in this opportunity to learn through your own first hand experience of the relationship between individual micro-economic choices and the macro-economic trends it creates across time. You are living it, right now. Pay attention. Gather information. Learn what has happened. Be present so you may watch the subtleties of this as it unfolds. Share that information with your fellow shooters on platforms such as this one. That knowledge and experience is invaluable and infinite in its power. Do not have fear of missing out, because you already missed out. It's done. The train left the station, and you weren't on it. You weren't on the platform in time because you didn't clock the schedule. You weren't paying attention. So because it's gone already, there is no sense in having fear or anger or any other negative emotion. That is irrational. Instead, become a detective. Embrace the fact that you missed out and embrace the fact that it is definitely your fault. Then set things in motion to ensure that will not happen in the future. Stop being someone that life "happens" to, and make your life what you want it to be. If you want to shoot, you're gonna need primers. Start planning for the future. Make decisions which work toward realistic goals.

Decide who you are. Are you a rifleman? Are you a fisherman? Are you a plumber? Are you an accountant? Are you a biker? If you're a rifleman, then sell your boat, your bikes, your kayaks, your lake cabin, and the rest of the things that do not serve who you are. Streamline your life to serve you rather than trying to keep up with the Jones'. Then the next time that surplus cycle comes around, you'll be cash flush and ready to capitalize on the investment you made into your future a long time ago. If you decide you are a fisherman... those of us that decided we are riflemen won't have pity when you want to switch your role in the middle of a panic. Either you squirreled nuts away all summer to withstand the winter, or you starve. Nature's laws apply to men as well as beasts.

Decide who you are.
Why to I feel like I just got a history, economics and business lecture all in one. Of Couse u r right Orkan and appreciate the thought you put into your response. Most people of course will choose not to accept your analysis and continue to behave as they always have blaming someone else for their life's short comings.
 

Mostly Tailfeathers

Active Member
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Joined
Oct 17, 2020
Messages
42
Location
Oregon
I suspect the home reloader is probably a very small portion of the overall component user market, (far behind boxed ammo, military's etc.) so expecting massive companies to change their operation for a very small user group may not be reasonable. MT
 

graywolf

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 11, 2011
Messages
233
Location
Western MT
Great post Orkan, thanks for taking the time to state some ground truths. Things won't change much until we recognize the conflict between rational thinking and the more primitive neurobiology that underlies human behavior. The brain evolved to promote survival and influences behaviors on conscious and subconscious levels. Hunting and foraging for food comes from drives that benefited us for millennia but on evolutionary time scales we have an environment that changed faster than our biology and we worry about toilet paper and primers. The fear and loathing of predators and ability to quickly evaluate the environment and social cues let us make snap decisions to survive. Now the web and social media have emerged and amplify this behavior, look at the dysfunction that results.
 
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