Message from President of Federal

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Jmatt

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Sign at local florist: “Lack of planning on your part does not constitute an emergency on ours!”

Anyone smart enough to say the manufacturers should have seen this coming and prepared accordingly should also have been smart enough to prepare for it by buying ahead of time and preparing for a rainy day.

We’re currently in our third “existential crisis” in the last twenty years and somehow 90 percent of the country has learned nothing. The real existential crisis in this country is the unwillingness of most Americans to take full responsibility for their actions and their situation.
 

bomberodevil

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Decide who you are.

Allow me to provide some perspective. Once upon a time we sold modular switch-barrel rifle systems. Easiest barrel changes in the world. We were the #1 or #2 distributor of those things in the country for several years. The conversations I'd have with customers would lead me to believe they shot "a lot." Yet, in all my time providing those rifles, do you know how many of those customers required a re-barrel?

One.

That's right... hundreds of barrels sold, and we had one re-barrel across nearly 7 years. Maybe 2... but I think it was just one. I just talked to a customer a month or so ago whom I sold a rifle to in 2015. He called to inquire about load data, because he was going to take it out and shoot it for the first time... 5 years later. A $6000 custom precision rifle... and it's just now going to get used. Not anything wrong with it, and I don't think less of those folks... but it's just some perspective. Many of those conversions were sold in SUPER hot cartridges like 22 Creedmoor or 22-243win. Big magnums to include wildcats based on 338LM cases necked to 7mm. Plenty of 6.5 Creedmoor as well as other cartridges that should see a heavy firing schedule for those "competition shooters." Alas, virtually no one put enough rounds on their rifles to require a re-barrel.

The perspective I'm trying to offer is the fact that people simply do not shoot as much as they claim to. This is especially true for handloaders. Shooting is an important part of their life, and they love it... but the actual act of shooting isn't the main draw for most. Instead, they like the social aspects and the new discoveries. The new experiences they have when they buy a new rifle. I know so many people that almost never shoot, but they are in a constant state of "building" their next rifle. Once it's finished, they'll sell it or shelf it, and start the process up again. They get to feel involved, current, relevant, and "knowledgeable."

Overnight, people went from buying 100 primers at a time, to 10,000 at a time. Primer manufacturers know what I know: Most of those people are not going to shoot those primers. Especially when everyone's hoarding. Those primers will sit on their shelves and they'll be happy because they have them, but they will not be shot.

So here's what's going to happen. As soon as the "rush" wears off, people are going to stop buying primers. Primers will start showing up on store shelves again. After that, primers will be found piling up absolutely everywhere. Then, the prices of primers on the shelves will continue to drop. Still no one will buy them... because everyone already has a ton from the panic buying they did. Then they'll look at the pile of primers they bought, and be concerned about all the room they are taking up in their reloading closet... and they'll start trying to sell them, further saturating the market. Prices will be rock bottom, availability will be sky high... and that's exactly where it will stay until the next "panic."

So why would a manufacturer invest in new equipment when they've already seen how shooters behave enmasse over the last 40 years of these cycles in demand? They know that right on the other side of this rush, there will be the lowest demand imaginable. Those of us that have been around a while have seen this play out over and over again. Look at AR15's. During the obama panic, the cheapest AR you could buy was about $1500, and it was a real pile of trash. Prior to all this starting up again I could buy a complete AR with several accessories for $500. I saw some being sold for $385. A complete fully functional AR15 in .223 for $385. I watched AR15 manufacturers that started up at the beginning or during the panic, filing for bankruptcy left and right. Sitting on shipping containers full of AR15's that were essentially worthless when weighed against the cost of the machines sitting idle on their shop floor. Literal pallets of lower receivers in various states of completion being auctioned off by their lending institutions who lost big while they peddle what was left of the corpse of that company. They just couldn't hang on until the next panic. That's bad business strategy folks.

That same fate is exactly what awaits a primer manufacturer startup right now. By the time they catch their stride, this will all be over and the American shooters will leave them to fail. The cycle will continue.

If you want this to change, then I suggest some of you evaluate your firing schedule. I shoot purposeful precision rifle rounds every single day. If there is legitimate demand which doesn't subsequently cause a very predictable surplus... the manufacturers will respond. They will have a fiduciary duty to do so. Just as that duty demands they act responsibly right now. The reality of the situation is not what reading forums would have you believe it is. The political turmoil and uncertainty facing the firearms industry is not a prompt to go taking big risks. Rather, it is a time to pay very close attention and make moves which can be fully supported.

Scalpers will ensure this panic continues as long as possible. So long as someone can buy 1000 primers for $50 and sell them for $500, there will be no possibility of manufacturers being able to provide enough. No matter what they produce, scalpers will buy. So long as people continue to purchase at inflated prices, this will continue. It is the quintessential definition of capitalism. American shooters tend to forget the predictable ramifications of their behaviors. They don't understand the power of their purchases. In previous years, Federal/CCI sees American shooters buying foreign primers in huge quantities for the sake of saving $1 per thousand. Even if it were $20 per thousand, we are taking food directly off the plate for our American companies which will have the direct result of them being forced to cut back manufacturing due to reduced demand. Then a panic hits and everyone wants to get mad at them for not having enough to supply us all. It's fascinating to me.

This is a problem of our own creation, as is so often the case in this country. Each shooter, needs to honestly evaluate what part they are playing. Understand the power of your choices. While some of you may not be entrepreneurs or business people... if you just stop to think for a moment at all, you may discover you play a larger role than you realize. Personal accountability. Individual free will and the power to choose. The most essential core principle of what this country was founded on... yet so many people want to do as they please and then get upset at the extremely predictable consequences of those choices. If we want things to change as a whole, then we must be willing to change at the individual level. If you are unwilling to do that, then it will be difficult for me to offer any sympathy. Over a year ago, I was instructing people to buy 25,000 primers of each type they require. I bought 100,000 of all types for myself. As I shoot tens of thousands a year... I figured that should take me through the next panic, and it will. The shelves were FLUSH with primers. I told all of the shooters I mentor, and any customer that asked, to buy as much powder and as many primers and other components as they could afford. Supply was plentiful, and competitively priced. I spoke of rewarding our awesome American companies for their investment in us. Buy piles of components, shoot constantly! Some listened... others did not.

Now we stand in yet another panic portion of the cycle. Emotions once again run high... just as the clinton panic, and the obama panic. This biden panic will go just like the previous panics. Though I'm left to wonder if anyone plans to learn anything. Is anyone is looking within themselves for the solutions to their problems? Is everyone just going to point fingers and try to assign blame, just like the previous panics? If we want this to stop... just stop buying components at inflated prices. Patently refuse to pay even $1 more than "normal" prices for anything. Quit letting FOMO (fear of missing out) direct your life. If you made the mistake of not stocking up because you're new, or didn't see this coming... just embrace the mistake. Say to yourself, "well, this is unfortunate... I'm going to do better next time," and calmly shift your focus for the short term. If you still want to shoot, go buy a quality air rifle, a bunch of great accessories for it, and as many pellets/slugs as you think you'll need to see it through. These days, air rifles are made in nearly any variety and can kill just about anything living. That will scratch your itch and allow you to ply your skillset until the dust settles from all this. If that is impossible... take up archery! Anything to keep you from falling victim to scalpers and their highly destructive artificial market manipulation. Starve the scalpers, literally. That's the power of capitalism. They can only benefit if we let them. They are predators, in it for the love of money, not the love of shooting. Once we hit the other end of the cycle, you apply what you've learned... and never forget it. Teach it to others. When the manufacturers are sitting on a massive supply that they are dying to move... help them. Buy all you will need to see you through the next super-predictable panic, which as sure as I'm alive, WILL happen.

Do not be mad at the manufacturers, and mad at your fellow shooters that were wise enough to stock up in advance of this surge in demand. Instead, revel in this opportunity to learn through your own first hand experience of the relationship between individual micro-economic choices and the macro-economic trends it creates across time. You are living it, right now. Pay attention. Gather information. Learn what has happened. Be present so you may watch the subtleties of this as it unfolds. Share that information with your fellow shooters on platforms such as this one. That knowledge and experience is invaluable and infinite in its power. Do not have fear of missing out, because you already missed out. It's done. The train left the station, and you weren't on it. You weren't on the platform in time because you didn't clock the schedule. You weren't paying attention. So because it's gone already, there is no sense in having fear or anger or any other negative emotion. That is irrational. Instead, become a detective. Embrace the fact that you missed out and embrace the fact that it is definitely your fault. Then set things in motion to ensure that will not happen in the future. Stop being someone that life "happens" to, and make your life what you want it to be. If you want to shoot, you're gonna need primers. Start planning for the future. Make decisions which work toward realistic goals.

Decide who you are. Are you a rifleman? Are you a fisherman? Are you a plumber? Are you an accountant? Are you a biker? If you're a rifleman, then sell your boat, your bikes, your kayaks, your lake cabin, and the rest of the things that do not serve who you are. Streamline your life to serve you rather than trying to keep up with the Jones'. Then the next time that surplus cycle comes around, you'll be cash flush and ready to capitalize on the investment you made into your future a long time ago. If you decide you are a fisherman... those of us that decided we are riflemen won't have pity when you want to switch your role in the middle of a panic. Either you squirreled nuts away all summer to withstand the winter, or you starve. Nature's laws apply to men as well as beasts.

Decide who you are.
This might be the best written statement I’ve read on the internet. Ever. On any topic.
 

tcmikey

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I'm curious to know who the people are that are buying in bulk now. With Covid, some sectors of the economy are struggling. Those that are effected financially are probably not the ones trying to buy large quantities now. Housing and food are their priorities. Those that are whining and buying in bulk must have a good bit of expendable income. And of course, they're single. Or if the wife finds out they paid $2/round for 9mm fmj, they will be single. Lol
 

JakeC

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I'm curious to know who the people are that are buying in bulk now. With Covid, some sectors of the economy are struggling. Those that are effected financially are probably not the ones trying to buy large quantities now. Housing and food are their priorities. Those that are whining and buying in bulk must have a good bit of expendable income. And of course, they're single. Or if the wife finds out they paid $2/round for 9mm fmj, they will be single. Lol
Are people paying that? my god. I went to a gun shop that is the least gouging, fairest place I've ever been and they were charging $1200 per 1k, I was stunned.
 

General RE LEE

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Sign at local florist: “Lack of planning on your part does not constitute an emergency on ours!”

Anyone smart enough to say the manufacturers should have seen this coming and prepared accordingly should also have been smart enough to prepare for it by buying ahead of time and preparing for a rainy day.

We’re currently in our third “existential crisis” in the last twenty years and somehow 90 percent of the country has learned nothing. The real existential crisis in this country is the unwillingness of most Americans to take full responsibility for their actions and their situation.

and thanks to this mindset people are hoarding factory ammo.
 

tcmikey

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I just checked gunbroker. Apparently not. About $1/round some self defense seems to be close $1.75.
I'm stunned at all of it. I don't get it. I find it hard to believe that someone new to guns just picked up a plastic 9mm semi for home defense and believes they need 1000 rounds to practice and 1000 for the SHTF. They probably shove the gun and a box of 50 in a drawer and forget about it.
 
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GunHawk

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I'm probably one of the few on here who is okay with the results, but I also spent a lot of time calling out the other liberals I know for crass generalizations or putdowns. Boy I've had some fiiiights with my girl about that. It's just not okay to decide another American you don't even know is no longer your brother or sister just because of their beliefs, history, or genetic makeup. Criminal behavior is one thing to criticize, and setting boundaries with a belligerent person in your life is reasonable, but throwing base insults is another thing that we need to delete from our conversation. Your dad sounds like a champ.
Well said, thank you.
 

dgr416

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Delta Junction Ak
I have asked bass pro shop how much ammo they get and Wal-Mart .They said very little may be once a week a few boxes .I want to know where this triple shift of ammo and brass is really going .
 

General RE LEE

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I have asked bass pro shop how much ammo they get and Wal-Mart .They said very little may be once a week a few boxes .I want to know where this triple shift of ammo and brass is really going .

Exactly...if they are making a bunch of ammo I'm sure not seeing it. I need some 6.5 Creedmoor to shoot.
 

frostop

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ID
I was just told by a gentlemen at Big 5(employee of Big 5), that he was told by his CCI/Federal rep that there is not shortage, they cant keep up with the demand and that the Government just placed a large order!! Not sure how much truth there is to his statement but my question is why is the government putting in a large order??
 

MOOSE39465

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Doesn’t make me feel better seeing all of those pallets of ammo behind him while he speaks. 😩
 

yorke-1

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I was just told by a gentlemen at Big 5(employee of Big 5), that he was told by his CCI/Federal rep that there is not shortage, they cant keep up with the demand and that the Government just placed a large order!! Not sure how much truth there is to his statement but my question is why is the government putting in a large order??

I don’t know if a guy selling soccer balls and treadmills would be my go to source for insider info on the global supply of ammunition.
 

Stammster

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Houston, Texas
They are using the opportunity to increase prices 3-15%. Didn’t hear him mention that in the latest diversity video.

That video also cost at least $75k+ to make.
 
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