Shot selection, how do you know?

[Damage Inc.]

My question to the forum is this:

How do you determine, quickly, if the shot presented is a viable shot (for you)?

Context of the conversation:

Took a buddy and one of his buddies up shooting yesterday. Not super long range, but shots on rocks out to 700 or so.

As we were picking a few rocks out to shoot, but before any shots were fired, I made the comment that I "liked" the potential shot at 570 yards (across the canyon, down about 10 degrees), but I "didn't like" a very similar shot at 700 yards (up the canyon, and up about 10 degrees).

"Because it's too far?" Was the question I heard.

"No, 700 isn't too far…. I just know a tough shot when I see one. It's not the distance. It's all the added variables."

Then….

All three shooters hammered the rock at 570 with the first round, and whiffed badly on the rock at 700 with the first round. Not much was said at that point, but a discussion broke out on the ride home.

"How did you know that shot at 700 was going to be way tougher than the shot at 600?" Asks my buddy…..

"Thousands of spent primers", was my reply.

I went on to extol the virtues of actual field shooting…. in the wind, and the rain, and the snow, and the heat, and the cold. In the mountains, on the prairies, in the desert, in the jungle. Off of bipods and backpacks and blow-downs and jackets rolled-up on a rock.

I reckon I've shot enough now, that I know shots that I "like", and shots that I don't….. almost instantly.

I suppose Dirty Harry was right…. A man DOES have to know his limitations.

 

[med358-boise]

It would be helpful if you artriculated the specific variables and their values for the 700 yard shot that caused you to "almost instantly" know it was too difficult.

 

[jasent]

You already answered the question.
Experience is the answer. When you know you know

 

[mrbb]

I think knowing when to say when or hold back, is a personal thing and it should be based one one's actual SKILLS that they have proven time and time again and know they can make a shot, no guessing or MAYBE's
if one isn;t 100% sure, on a live animal they should NOT take the shot IMO!
targets, have at them, its how you get better, but critters are not targets to practice and learn skills on ,IMO!

 

[med358-boise]

"Experience" is not answer, it is a data set or DOPE you use to get an answer. An answer to the queston I asked would be, for example:

In this case a 700 yards, plus X angle which was up, plus y amount of crosswind because...

Granted, that will vary by shooter but what are the OPs rules of thumb so to speak. Otherwise, I am not sure I understand why the OP says "it's all the variables" if he is not going to discuss the variables.

Jasent - what would your reaction be if the OP was only the phrase "I am a great shot with 1000s of rounds of experience and I can almost instantly tell if I like a shot or don't like a shot and it's just not distance"?

What useful exchange of information would occur by 10 posters all just saying that the black box of experience after 1000s of rounds let's them know a shot they like from one they don't?

 

[jasent]

Experience is the answer. Maybe he has experience at that mountain or that specific spot. I too do a ton of rock hunting often in the exact same places I hunt. This has taught me a ton about the winds in those areas.
Sure it's a box answer that doesn't lead to good conversation but it's still true. I got plenty of areas I can make those first round hits that no one else I've shot with has made simply because I've shot in those areas enough to know how the winds react in many different conditions. But that is do to me not having a range available. I can shoot from home out to 835 yards but that gets so boring.
Experience also could just be from learning how terrain effects winds and thermals.

Rock hunting in the mountains is so rewarding.

 

[Damage Inc.]

Good question Med…. I suppose that's the essence of the discussion. It only really matters if you're trying to translate first round hits on inanimate stuff, to first round hits on stuff with fur.

Do you need "hard data", or is it more of a "feel" for you?

Jasent nailed it though. The answer, again, is: actual field shooting. I've shot in those same conditions all over the west. From 12,000'+ rock massacres, to seaside bombs at coyotes.

Actual shooting goes a long way toward hitting almost everything you shoot at…. mostly by teaching what not to shoot at.

I'll extrapolate on the above statement, then qualify the delta in variables, as requested….

I knew instantly, that if it were a shot at a deer… I would take the 570 yard shot (post haste) and fully expect a deer in the dirt. Disclaimer: only if it were a BIG deer, as that pack-out would have been hell.

I also knew, instantly, that if it were a shot at a deer, I would try to get closer on the 700 yard shot (or at least watch for a while in an attempt to isolate some of those variables).

Here was the difference between the two shots:

looking at the 570 yard rock; it was across the canyon, with a fickle 2-4 mph wind from about 4:00. Because the shot was off a landing, and across the canyon, the wind had essentially zero effect on the shot. It was also a far more stable shooting platform and angle, than the other shot.

The 700 yard rock had a couple things that instantly made it tougher (in my humble experience).
1. The wind was now coming from 6:00ish, which is already bad. Sometimes it's from 5:00…. sometimes it's from 7:00. Where do you hold?
2. The shot would be fired from an exposed landing (4825' elev.), up toward the peak of the mountain (5100' elev.). Most of the surrounding stuff was lower than the landing, so the bullet is exposed to all kinds of crazy wind. To presume that wind is any kind "constant" is the acme of foolishness.
3. Shooting uphill 10* isn't extreme, but it's enough off a bipod, with Sporter weight hunting rifles, to cause some dubious shooting.

Ultimately, I was right. The wind looked like it was off the right… I held 1/2 mil R… bullet impact was 1 mil R. I adjusted quickly and pounded it with a 1/2 mil L. The the next shot hit 1 mil L with the same hold. All in about 10 seconds. Self-fulfilling prophecy? Maybe. But I'd have bet the first beer, and dinner on the way home…. against a first round hit. I'd have gladly paid-up too, because it'd have been an excellent rifle shot.

You are right about one thing though, it is all about having good DOPE.

But let's not forget….

The most important part of DOPE…. is the PE... because, if you've got no Previous Engagements….. then you've got no Data.

 

[Zen Archery]

My 30+ years in education says either a). provide language to back up your experiential knowledge or
b). let the inexperienced learn on their own so they can develop an understanding of their own so they can develop a language to explain hits and missed.

 

[Damage Inc.]

My 30+ years of shooting stuff… says the only way to learn how to shoot stuff, is to shoot stuff.

My 30+ years of missing stuff… says the best way to not miss stuff, is learning what not to shoot at.

 

[Lenny Foffa]

Great Thread Damage!! Really interesting topic and this team of guys are all very sharp!! As long we practice Long shots and Difficult shots and Tricky windy shots on Paper and Water Bottles and Rocks ect. we are all doing what is intelligent and educational. It all helps us to learn what we can and cannot do well at any given time. AND we all continue to strive to be better. Lots of spent primers. One important point I will make is simply this ,"None of us Practice difficult shots on Live Game". Thats why I am very proud to be among this company of riflemen.

 

[lancetkenyon]

Here is my take, and ONLY MY TAKE. No offence to anyone.

For me, I would rather take the shot on the rock at 700. If the 540 shot seemed easy, then take the harder shot and learn from your mistakes.

You gain experience by actually experiencing. Learning those harder shots make you a better shooter. Push your limits. Misses=knowledge too.

When we go shoot for fun, 99% of the time, our first shots of the day are 1k+. That is at least 1-2 times a month. When you can make a cold bore, cold SHOOTER 1st round hit on an 8" steel at 1100, that is a huge confidence builder, and really sets the tone of the day. Limiting your attempts at longer distances on inanimate objects, even in poor conditions, only limits your gain in knowledge and experience. I love shooting on windy days at steel and rocks. When you have to hold 4.5 MIL of wind and dial 11.4 MIL at 1400, and you get to watch that vapor trail curl and drop in like a slice on a golf ball, then hear the distant "whack", it is a great feeling.

 

[Papa762]

My question to the forum is this:

How do you determine, quickly, if the shot presented is a viable shot (for you)?

Context of the conversation:

Took a buddy and one of his buddies up shooting yesterday. Not super long range, but shots on rocks out to 700 or so.

As we were picking a few rocks out to shoot, but before any shots were fired, I made the comment that I "liked" the potential shot at 570 yards (across the canyon, down about 10 degrees), but I "didn't like" a very similar shot at 700 yards (up the canyon, and up about 10 degrees).

"Because it's too far?" Was the question I heard.

"No, 700 isn't too far…. I just know a tough shot when I see one. It's not the distance. It's all the added variables."

Then….

All three shooters hammered the rock at 570 with the first round, and whiffed badly on the rock at 700 with the first round. Not much was said at that point, but a discussion broke out on the ride home.

"How did you know that shot at 700 was going to be way tougher than the shot at 600?" Asks my buddy…..

"Thousands of spent primers", was my reply.

I went on to extol the virtues of actual field shooting…. in the wind, and the rain, and the snow, and the heat, and the cold. In the mountains, on the prairies, in the desert, in the jungle. Off of bipods and backpacks and blow-downs and jackets rolled-up on a rock.

I reckon I've shot enough now, that I know shots that I "like", and shots that I don't….. almost instantly.

I suppose Dirty Harry was right…. A man DOES have to know his limitations.

You were certainly correct. Experience is the key.

 

[med358-boise]

and of course documented experience is about 5 times better than undocumented experience, hence log books.

 

[Greyfox]

I have often passed on shots at game when I felt uncertain. Wind IS an indeterminate. But I do treat each and every practice/target encounter as a unique case and learning experience, rarely passing. In the case of the OP's challenging shot that 700 yard scenario at rocks, regardless of my past experiences, I still would have likely gone through all my ammo trying to figure it out. Having been confronted with the "impossible" target in PRS matches, invariably, some shooter figures out the shot. Perhaps it's luck, or the conditions changed for just him, but it happens all too frequently and it usually becomes obvious they possessed the knowledge and experience to figure it out. I didn't! Thankfully, each year, my list of "impossible" shots gets shorter, and some new ones get added. This development process determines the shots I will take at game. It is what has kept me captivated by this sport!