The air is a reflective medium which light passes through. It has mass, it has refractive properties, just like glass...A change in light angle changes where you percieve the target to be.
It is an optical effect, it doesn't change ballistics at all...it changes the point of aim, because the target appears to be in a slightly different place than it was an hour ago.
Changes of .2-.4mil (.6-1.3moa) are extremely common. In extreme cases (for instance, shooting down into a shadowed valley, facing the sun low on the horizon), I've seen as much as 1mil (3.5moa) change.
Without being there it is impossible for anyone to say that is what it was. However, it might be repeatable if you shoot again at the same place under similar conditions and time frames.