It truly depends on the weather pattern for fall black bears, if it's a wet summer or the gates of hell open up like they did the last couple years. If it's a hot dry summer most of the high elevation bears actually migrate down closer to main water sources, rivers lakes streams that didn't dry up. 2022 was a prime example of this, pushing most bears down into the river bottoms, trying to chase as much available late season high fat food sources. Your success and where you key in on trying to find bears in the fall is more logical to look at the weather pattern of the summer and moister content in higher elevations. If it's a good spring and a mild summer your chances of harvesting a bear are very high if you understand the availability of foraging feed sources, if it's hot and dry you need to key in on flowing and predominate water, and heavily shaded areas.