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What do you guys think of this???????
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<blockquote data-quote="LRNut" data-source="post: 3053955" data-attributes="member: 3230"><p>Interesting video. My first clue on how this would turn out was his zero check at 100 - not a great 3 shot group.</p><p></p><p>I shoot daily when I am at my CO house. Pretty sure I could hit a milk jug out to 600 90% of the time as long as the wind is not blowing hard. But 100 shots in one day is more than I would be interested in shooting and not realistic - only the first shot in a given situation is realistic because after that you get feedback from misses. The guy's first miss due to wind (I think 400 or so yards) showed mirage moving left; not sure if he shaded for that or not. He didn't appear to use his parallax to isolate the mirage; in fact, not sure how he estimated the wind. But wind is not a huge factor (unless it's howling) out to 600, but past that it becomes a real challenge - your group size is getting bigger, wind deflection is increasing exponentially, and TOF is getting longer. You can't extrapolate hits at one distance and say, "Gee, that would have been a hit at twice the distance."</p><p></p><p>I am a big fan of Bryan Litz's WEZ concept. Not all bullets travel in a perfectly straight line; at 1000 yards, you can hit a 10"x10" target 100% of the time if you have a 1/2 MOA rifle, range it properly, hold perfectly, have no wind, and hold for spin. Do it 100 times and some of your bullets are going to be 2.5" inches left or right of center. That represents your allowable wind error in order to have a 100% hit rate. I don't know of a hunting cartridge on the planet that doesn't drift at least 2.5" in a 1 mph wind at 1000 yards. With a 300 Berger .338 (I shoot that bullet a lot at 910 and 1047), you need to estimate the wind within 1/2 mph 100% of the time in order for you to hit 100% of time. Even if you could do this, the wind cannot change during the TOF, which is 1.2 seconds. So suppose you can shoot within 1 second of your wind call - doable with a wind caller - the wind cannot change during that 2.2 seconds. I posted a while ago about an experiment I did in CO - I held my Kestrel in the wind and recorded on my iPhone, then played it back one frame at a time. I recorded the wind speed at each frame, then calculated how much it changed. IIRC, the wind averaged 6 mph. I don't recall the exact numbers, but it showed that even a perfect wind call would be thrown off simply due to the wind change during the TOF. Granted, where it changed during the TOF would matter a great deal.</p><p></p><p>As for competition (PRS, F class, etc.) sure some guys might hit every target. Someone posted on thread I made about F class percent of shots hitting the MOA ring at 1 MOA ring that in almost every match, someone puts all 20 into that 10" ring at 1000 yards. True, but no one does it every time at every match that I am aware of. Take a large enough group of great shooters, and someone is going to perform remarkably well, just like some stock pickers beat the S&P 500. But do they do that at every single match?</p><p></p><p>At some point, math and physics make it impossible to hit a given sized target at a given range 100% of the time.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="LRNut, post: 3053955, member: 3230"] Interesting video. My first clue on how this would turn out was his zero check at 100 - not a great 3 shot group. I shoot daily when I am at my CO house. Pretty sure I could hit a milk jug out to 600 90% of the time as long as the wind is not blowing hard. But 100 shots in one day is more than I would be interested in shooting and not realistic - only the first shot in a given situation is realistic because after that you get feedback from misses. The guy's first miss due to wind (I think 400 or so yards) showed mirage moving left; not sure if he shaded for that or not. He didn't appear to use his parallax to isolate the mirage; in fact, not sure how he estimated the wind. But wind is not a huge factor (unless it's howling) out to 600, but past that it becomes a real challenge - your group size is getting bigger, wind deflection is increasing exponentially, and TOF is getting longer. You can't extrapolate hits at one distance and say, "Gee, that would have been a hit at twice the distance." I am a big fan of Bryan Litz's WEZ concept. Not all bullets travel in a perfectly straight line; at 1000 yards, you can hit a 10"x10" target 100% of the time if you have a 1/2 MOA rifle, range it properly, hold perfectly, have no wind, and hold for spin. Do it 100 times and some of your bullets are going to be 2.5" inches left or right of center. That represents your allowable wind error in order to have a 100% hit rate. I don't know of a hunting cartridge on the planet that doesn't drift at least 2.5" in a 1 mph wind at 1000 yards. With a 300 Berger .338 (I shoot that bullet a lot at 910 and 1047), you need to estimate the wind within 1/2 mph 100% of the time in order for you to hit 100% of time. Even if you could do this, the wind cannot change during the TOF, which is 1.2 seconds. So suppose you can shoot within 1 second of your wind call - doable with a wind caller - the wind cannot change during that 2.2 seconds. I posted a while ago about an experiment I did in CO - I held my Kestrel in the wind and recorded on my iPhone, then played it back one frame at a time. I recorded the wind speed at each frame, then calculated how much it changed. IIRC, the wind averaged 6 mph. I don't recall the exact numbers, but it showed that even a perfect wind call would be thrown off simply due to the wind change during the TOF. Granted, where it changed during the TOF would matter a great deal. As for competition (PRS, F class, etc.) sure some guys might hit every target. Someone posted on thread I made about F class percent of shots hitting the MOA ring at 1 MOA ring that in almost every match, someone puts all 20 into that 10" ring at 1000 yards. True, but no one does it every time at every match that I am aware of. Take a large enough group of great shooters, and someone is going to perform remarkably well, just like some stock pickers beat the S&P 500. But do they do that at every single match? At some point, math and physics make it impossible to hit a given sized target at a given range 100% of the time. [/QUOTE]
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