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Long Range Hunting & Shooting
Increasing Accuracy Through Estimate Predicition
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<blockquote data-quote="Deleted member 46119" data-source="post: 1085801"><p>Are you mixing statistical modeling based prediction with physics based?</p><p></p><p>Internal ballistics programs like QuickLoad and dot Load try to predict velocity and pressure but it is from physics not statistics.</p><p></p><p>Optimal Barrel Timing tries to predict the velocity needed to reach an accuracy node but it is from physics not statistics.</p><p></p><p>Drop charges predict just that plus the adjustments required for the sighting system. Physics.</p><p></p><p>What are you trying to predict?</p><p></p><p>From that you need to determine what elements you need for your model.</p><p></p><p>That presents the data collection requirements.</p><p></p><p>Examples:</p><p></p><p>Your credit score is used to predict the likelihood that you will repay debt and that a creditor will make money in the process. The scoring companies collect debt and payment information, age, job, location etc.. That goes into a modeling program, you are compared against the model and a prediction is spit out.</p><p></p><p>Your insurance tries to predict the likelihood that you will have an incident for which you have insurance. Same, age, driving distance, health histories, accident histories and spits out rates.</p><p></p><p>and it goes on and on.</p><p></p><p>Like I said, I didn't do the algorithms. I'm not a statistician or actuary and I never played one on TV. </p><p></p><p>I probably forgot more than I know because when I think about the insurance models I used to run stuff comes out that I no longer need to know.</p><p></p><p>There may be a way that statistical modeling can improve internal and external physics modeling but again, what data and how to get it.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Deleted member 46119, post: 1085801"] Are you mixing statistical modeling based prediction with physics based? Internal ballistics programs like QuickLoad and dot Load try to predict velocity and pressure but it is from physics not statistics. Optimal Barrel Timing tries to predict the velocity needed to reach an accuracy node but it is from physics not statistics. Drop charges predict just that plus the adjustments required for the sighting system. Physics. What are you trying to predict? From that you need to determine what elements you need for your model. That presents the data collection requirements. Examples: Your credit score is used to predict the likelihood that you will repay debt and that a creditor will make money in the process. The scoring companies collect debt and payment information, age, job, location etc.. That goes into a modeling program, you are compared against the model and a prediction is spit out. Your insurance tries to predict the likelihood that you will have an incident for which you have insurance. Same, age, driving distance, health histories, accident histories and spits out rates. and it goes on and on. Like I said, I didn't do the algorithms. I'm not a statistician or actuary and I never played one on TV. I probably forgot more than I know because when I think about the insurance models I used to run stuff comes out that I no longer need to know. There may be a way that statistical modeling can improve internal and external physics modeling but again, what data and how to get it. [/QUOTE]
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Increasing Accuracy Through Estimate Predicition
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