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Rifles, Reloading, Optics, Equipment
Rifles, Bullets, Barrels & Ballistics
Hit percentage analysis
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<blockquote data-quote="pfxn" data-source="post: 1075889" data-attributes="member: 89641"><p>Hey Bryan, </p><p></p><p>Good article. As someone with an engineering background it's always really interesting to see competent and concrete analysis such as this to help the practical shooter gauge what's really important for putting rounds on target and what's just beating your head against the wall. Really good stuff.</p><p></p><p>I have a question though about how you're using uncertainty in the monte carlo. It looks like for most of your variables you're asking the user to specify the uncertainty as 1 standard deviation. After all most all of our chronographs will tell us up front the standard deviation of muzzle velocity for a string of shots. I assume this means internally you use a gaussian random number generator to pick a random error for each shot. </p><p>How do you handle the random dispersion associated with rifle precision? I see the header for that box is "extreme spread". Are you still using a gaussian distribution but interpreting the extreme spread as 2 or 3 sigma? If so, which? If I remember from stats class about 68% of my shots should group into 1 sigma of deviation, 95% into 2 sigma, and 99.7% or so in 3 sigma. </p><p></p><p>I think the average shooter is likely to shoot 3 - 5 shot groups to gauge their rifle precision, and it's common to dismiss flyers ( "I guess I just flinched on that one"). If I was to go to the range tomorrow and shoot 100 rounds on paper and carefully record them all, how should I best determine extreme spread for use with your software?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="pfxn, post: 1075889, member: 89641"] Hey Bryan, Good article. As someone with an engineering background it's always really interesting to see competent and concrete analysis such as this to help the practical shooter gauge what's really important for putting rounds on target and what's just beating your head against the wall. Really good stuff. I have a question though about how you're using uncertainty in the monte carlo. It looks like for most of your variables you're asking the user to specify the uncertainty as 1 standard deviation. After all most all of our chronographs will tell us up front the standard deviation of muzzle velocity for a string of shots. I assume this means internally you use a gaussian random number generator to pick a random error for each shot. How do you handle the random dispersion associated with rifle precision? I see the header for that box is "extreme spread". Are you still using a gaussian distribution but interpreting the extreme spread as 2 or 3 sigma? If so, which? If I remember from stats class about 68% of my shots should group into 1 sigma of deviation, 95% into 2 sigma, and 99.7% or so in 3 sigma. I think the average shooter is likely to shoot 3 - 5 shot groups to gauge their rifle precision, and it's common to dismiss flyers ( "I guess I just flinched on that one"). If I was to go to the range tomorrow and shoot 100 rounds on paper and carefully record them all, how should I best determine extreme spread for use with your software? [/QUOTE]
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Hit percentage analysis
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