Hornady Podcast

[nksmfamjp]

Did you listen to/watch this? Hornady: Your Groups Are Too Small

I'd like to start some discussion on this.

I'm going to try this with my 30 Herrett. Basically, I'm going to load 10 from 35000psi - 45000psi(Quickload base simulation) Somewhere in there, I will find max pressure and backoff.

Then I will load 30 at my MAX - a bit….Then shoot 30 shots as 5 shot groups. Then plot x,y in excel to do some statistics or something fancier if I can figure out how.

Anybody have IOS software that can superimpose several 5 shot groups to determine a total group size?

 

[GLTaylor]

Range Buddy app can do this. It's also free.

 

[Huntnful]

It was an excellent podcast. Yesterday I shot my first 10 shot group ever after listening to it. My three shot group prior was .44 MOA. My 10 shot group was .83 MOA with the same load.

After trying this method just once, I feel like a real solid load would shoot at or below .7 MOA for 10 shots. That will be my load work up goal I think.

 

[nksmfamjp]

Any thoughts about shooting 20-30 shots?

 

[Huntnful]

Any thoughts about shooting 20-30 shots?

I think they seem like an undeniable baseline. I'm just going to do 10 shot groups for components sake. 10 still seems like so many shots into a group after only ever shooting 3 hahaha

 

[QuietTexan]

Good overall, but Hornady is late to the game here, some of us have known these things for years. Cal at PRB was publishing on this same statistics issue two years ago. It is good to hear some confirmation that the insanity is going mainstream through

Edit: the golden nugget was at ~1:16, sometime I've been saying for a long time - small groups can't tell you how good something is, but they CAN tell you how bad something can be. This is why 2-shot pairs work for certain things like roughing in charge weight ladders and tuner settings; if any particular variable change gives you a result is worse than your baseline of acceptable, it'll never get better and you can write it off. Easy way to rule out certain combinations without wasting components.

 

[asd9055]

There was a similar post here a couple of days ago. So, I will change my comments this time.
I never had to shoot more twice on any animal. So, for me, hunting rifle, only care for 3-5 shot groups, and at the range I will be making my shots.
For all others there is a mathematical formula to calculate what numbers of samples is required for statistics to be significant. It varies with number of variables.
Finally, I take most recommendations coming out of someone trying to sell me more with a cup of salt. That's just me.
Experienced hunters here and in other forums taught so much!

 

[Mark37082]

I just had another flashback to Qualitative Statistics in college. There is really nothing revolutionary in the Pod Cast, but it does remind us that only selecting the best result from a small sample is not a great predictor of overall long term performance. The shooter still remains the most important variable when sending a round down range.

 

[nksmfamjp]

Well, I think it told us a couple of things. Hornady makes some of the best factory ammo IMO. Did they really just find statistics, or was this just a deeper dive?

Also, their histogram does not follow the normal distribution as well as 200 shots should. I figure they have a couple of variables in that data which is impacting the distribution….probably needs more work on consistency of methods. ….or is that barrel wear? Not sure. It just wasn't Gaussian enough for me. I would have liked to see velocity vs number of shots too and accuracy vs number of shots.

Last, I think their conclusions are interesting. Does accuracy really come down to component selection, and charge weight/seating depth matter less? Seems like that really is not understood well.

 

[QuietTexan]

Did they really just find statistics, or was this just a deeper dive?

Hornady as a company has known about this forever, the packaging and delivery to shooters is new. What used to be the subject of paper benchrest newsletters and magazines is now all the rage.

Seems like their MO, put a new veneer on something old and make a bajillion dollars selling it. And more power to them for it, I'd ride that horse if I could.

 

[cajun]

Nothing really new here. Of course the more data points you have the more accurate your data. However, a lot of hunting rifles without heavier barrels will struggle to shoot 10 shot groups or even 5 shots sometimes. Also if your letting your barrel cool down so you can shoot that much that is a different test not related to hunting. I can count on my left hand with a few fingers left how many times I've had to shoot more than twice. Nothing wrong with 3 shot groups as long as you shoot enough of them to make sure the data is repeatable.

 

[Hydra6]

My takeaway is at some point the load is "good enough" and you are fooling yourself chasing after the ultimate group (plus wasting components and barrel life).

 

[asd9055]

More money is made on chasing perfection than "good enough". I am a "good enough" type of guy

 

[nksmfamjp]

Hornady as a company has known about this forever, the packaging and delivery to shooters is new. What used to be the subject of paper benchrest newsletters and magazines is now all the rage.

Seems like their MO, put a new veneer on something old and make a bajillion dollars selling it. And more power to them for it, I'd ride that horse if I could.

What are they selling? If you say bullets, I would have been using more bullets before…so, I'm confused by your comments.