Why are we sending ammo to Ukraine?

[JimFromTN]

Thanks you for answering my question. It gives me a reason to research and try to discover for myself. There was a guy with the New York Times that came to the very same conclusion you did about LNG back in March. There are some doubts about this theory. For one, the reserves only make up about 3 percent of Russia's total reserves. Secondly, Kyiv has no LNG, Lugansk Oblasts has only 1% of the countries LNG, and the land along the black sea they have taken only makes up about 4% of Ukraines reserves. The majority of the reserves are in the central eastern part of the country. When Russia made its offer to the Ukraine, it did not ask for the regions that hold the majority of LNG. They just wanted the eastern Donbas region which has little LNG. If they were truly after the LNG they should have invaded further to the north and come south towards Poltava. They have a long painful road ahead of them if they are after the main reserves. Then there is the obstacle of trying get the LNG while trying to occupy the country. There was an estimate that it would require 1/2 of Russia's ground troops to occupy 1/3 of the Ukraine.

 

[JimFromTN]

Never said the Russians are good guys and Ukrainians are bad guys.

And yet you seem to side with the Russians

 

[jbs2014]

Rand corporation said the same thing. But I'm not so sure. They don't need to seize the gas, only prevent it from coming to market. And while I have not seen a BDA roll up of the Ukrainian O&G infrastructure I think it safe to say that it has been severely degraded.

I don't think taking and holding Kiev, or all of the Ukraine, was ever part of the plan. The Russians never committed the depth of forces required to do it. I think their plan was to have the forces initially arrayed to the north tasked to fix Ukrainian regular and irregular forces in place for the purpose of enabling success in the south. Which would make the overall objective creating a land bridge from Russia to Crimea and land locking the Ukraine (oops did I just answer the question I asked you)

I do agree that it would take at least half of Russia's military to occupy 1/3 of the Ukraine, maybe more. But one does not have to occupy a country to control it. In some instances if one can seize certain key terrain one can essentially control a country.

 

[jbs2014]

And yet you seem to side with the Russians

Things are not always what they seem.

 

[JimFromTN]

How do they prevent it from coming to market without occupation of the region? Seems like the Russian invasion will inspire the Ukraine along with the help of the west to start producing LNG.

 

[jbs2014]

How do they prevent it from coming to market without occupation of the region? Seems like the Russian invasion will inspire the Ukraine along with the help of the west to start producing LNG.

They do that by destroying the infrastructure. That stuff takes a while to rebuild. And couple that with all the other items that have been devastated it and it may be years before the field can be developed, same with the areas that show huge potential for exploration.

 

[jbs2014]

Now, my question to you. Do you think Putin will use a "tactical" nuclear weapon in the Ukraine? Why or why not and if yes under what conditions/trigger?

 

[JimFromTN]

They do that by destroying the infrastructure. That stuff takes a while to rebuild. And couple that with all the other items that have been devastated it and it may be years before the field can be developed, same with the areas that show huge potential for exploration.

I don't think LNG has anything to do with it. The Ukraine is not producing it yet and if anything this invasion could possibly speed up the process of getting LNG online in the Ukraine. There are allot of countries that would love to get their LNG from the Ukraine and I imagine they will be more than willing to help fund getting them started and helping them develop it. They will be more advanced than the Russians in that area by the time it is over. I don't think the Ukraine will ever have an issue getting aid from other countries ever again thanks to Putin. It also has nothing to do with creating a barrier to prevent invasion. Its the land locking of the Ukraine that seems to be the objective and its not to weaken the Ukraine but rather gain total control of the Black Sea. A russian general came out and said as much. It seems at this point, they have control of the region they want, they just have to convince the Ukraine to let go of it because Russia doesn't have the resources to be an occupying force.

Now, my question to you. Do you think Putin will use a "tactical" nuclear weapon in the Ukraine? Why or why not and if yes under what conditions/trigger?

I think its highly unlikely but it is always possible. On the face of things, the probability seems low enough that the US and Nato are willing to take the gamble as are Finland and Sweden. The why not is that it would be far too costly for Russia. They risk an all out nuclear war and there are no winners in an all out nuclear war. Its the end of the world. If it did not bring about an all out nuclear war, what are the ramifications? Would the US and other countries intervene militarily? How extreme would the sanctions become? Putin is said to be one of the richest men on the planet. Would his money be good anywhere ? Of course, he may feel once he has used a nuke, no one will have the testicular fortitude to enact any sanctions against him much less oppose him in any way. I don't think even China would stand behind him using a nuke. North Korea would probably be the only country to come out in support of it but they would still be soiling themselves over it quietly. Who knows which way the wind will blow. It seems foolish to nuke a country on your own border even if he hits the center of the country. Seems like an extreme last resort when Putin has nothing left to lose.

As for what exactly would cause him to resort to the extreme, I have no idea. It is reported that his ground forces are falling apart. Its reported that a russian soldier is dying every 4 minutes in the Ukraine. British intelligence is reporting that Russia has lost a third of their ground forces in the Ukraine. Russian troops have been executed for rebelling against their commanders. Apparently, Russian soldiers are not getting paid and they are not happy about it. Also, Russia has been using russian mercenaries which been getting paid which I imagine does not make the regulars very happy. According to reports, the mercenaries have made little difference and have had high casualty rates. That being said, even if the Ukrainians are able to push the Russians out of the Ukraine, I does not seem like Putin would use nukes but he seems a bit on the crazy side so who knows. They do have an escalate to de-escalate policy so you never know.

 

[jbs2014]

LNG and other Ukrainian fossil fuels are not the main factor but they are a factor, especially if he want to degrade the Ukraine economically. Seizing the Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and Sea of Azov are definitely more important. However the Turks are the ones in control of the Black Sea as they control the choice bits. Regarding the barrier/buffer zone, remember why they took these areas (Eastern Europe & Soviet states)in the first place.

If NATO commits land forces he just may use a nuclear weapon. Then there is the possibility of a limited exchange, depending on Brandon and NATO.

He may have lost alot of his ground forces. Not sure if it's actually 1/3, that quantity has huge implications on a force's capability to conduct combat operations. And so far they are still conducting combat operations. One thing to remember about the Russians, they have never been reluctant to take massive casualties to achieve their aims.

 

[jbs2014]

I don't understand why we are sending ammo to Ukraine, corrupt is not an sufficient discription. I know people on here have relatives in Ukraine and my heart goes out to them. War is not a game no matter what side you are on. The Ukraine government/military are clearly the bad guys here though.

Looks like Rand Paul put the brakes on that 40 billion dollar spending package, at least temporarily.

Why Did Rand Paul Delay Washington's $40 Billion Ukraine Giveaway? | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Have to see what the senate does on Wednesday.

 

[Mike Matteson]

Ukraine: If I remember correctly. Under Clinton Adm. We signed a treaty with them saying we would protect them. They gave up the Atomic Weapons. They had about a 1/3 of Russia missiles. We didn't want them to be Nuke Power House. I still on some shake ground on this (Maybe somebody can enlighten me and others on this). The Russia had no business going into Ukraine the first time or this time.
Voters are blind or stupid. Oh something for free. Nothing is free. Just look at our government. If you don' t think that a lot of them aren't crooks, presently in powder, think again.
Trump was going in and was straightening thing out. I felt Trump was going to put a stop the foundations that each congressmen or Senator can set up to line there pockets. You donate to the foundation and we'll see what we can do for you. Stock Trade are another one. The Speaker of the House finally got busted on it. Crooks & Crooks, & Crooks. From what I understand that been away of life for ever.
Do you really thing that Russia would have gone into Ukraine if Trump had been still in offices? This President Biden (aka Dumb Bast**D) is as crooked as they come. The upper FBI are crooked too. It's in the news every day. If you can't see it you, are blind in one eye and can't see out of the other.
The left is doing everything they can to take away our 2nd amendment rights.
Just thing back. "Russia! Russia! Russia! What a bunch of lies that was and is. PEOPLE ARE STILL STICKING THERE HEADS INTO THE SAND!
The Ukraine are putting up a good fight. They aren't cutting and running. They are STANDING & FIGHTING!
This President in Ukraine is a Jew, and not a Russia. FULLY UNDEDSTAND I DON'T HAVE ANYTHING AGAINST THE JEWS EITHER. At one time if there was going to be another war. I would have left the country and joined the Israelites Army. At lease they allow you to fight. not have one hand tied behind you like in Vietnam.
Get out an Vote in the next election. That the only real voice we have.