They have a hybrid draw system where half the tags go to those with the highest points and everyone gets thrown in the pot for the other half. If there are an odd number of tags such as five, two go to the top point holders and three are random drawing. Having said that, you do have a chance at drawing any of the LE elk tags but you are many years from having a guaranteed tag of any kind, be it rifle, bow or muzzleloader. The archery and black powder tags are a little better odds but still low.
I currently have 9 points and am at least 3 or 4 years from a guaranteed draw in some hunts and will never be guaranteed a tag like the San Juan. Even the easier units are uncertain because the point totals that draw the high point tag vary from year to year. One year 11 points might get the high point tag and then next year it takes 14 points. It is a bit discouraging but you still have a puncher's chance at any tag you put in for.
