Increasing Accuracy Through Estimate Predicition

[mitch260]

Are you talking about a program like Applied Ballistic's WEZ analysis?

 

[davkrat]

I know you're not supposed to discuss ethics on this forum but I think you are getting into an area where you need to discuss just that. I agree it is hard to argue and possibly set limits for other people based on how ethical their choice of caliber, max range, minimum impact velocity/KE. I'm the end though we as hunters (particularly if you hope to see hunting continue for your kids) owe it to the animal to only take shots that we are highly confident that we will hit vitals and quickly kill an animal. For me the thought of not practicing shooting a particular range. Angle or most importantly a horrible shooting position and going off a computer model based on a few shots from a bench at short range is totally unethical.

Go climb a 40 degree shale slope and try to get a comfortable set up between the manzanita and connect first round on a 500 yard shot. Your pounding heart and lack of steadiness/comfort will become very apparent. Add in some unkown cross canyon winds you've never experienced and it only makes it worse.

Without real world practice the only way I can see this happening is with a coach. A guide using his equipment who regularly shoots those conditions. If the guide can get the shooter in a very solid/comfortable position to where all they need to think about is the trigger squeeze then it's possible.

 

[MMERSS]

Go climb a 40 degree shale slope and try to get a comfortable set up between the manzanita and connect first round on a 500 yard shot. Your pounding heart and lack of steadiness/comfort will become very apparent. Add in some unkown cross canyon winds you've never experienced and it only makes it worse..

Davkrat,
Yes it definitely can get worse, and quickly.

Three summers past I took 40 days of shooting time specifically to establish an estimate for first round shots hitting either a 10"or 14 " target. This was a very long and painstakingly intense process for me. Nonetheless, I established estimates and a process that worked for me to determine a maximum effective range and backed by field practice. Then along came WEZ. Running 40 days of data and my last 25 hunts against WEZ I noticed a 95% to 100% WEZ analysis very closely mirrored my field results for an estimated 88% first round chance of hit. What took 40 days of shooting and confirming the results against MY ESTIMATES now only takes about 10 minutes using WEZ.

View attachment 338 Lapua 90% hit Example.pdf
I've attached one of my range cards used as an example after using 95% WEZ on a 10x10" square target which will closely mirror my field hunts that resulted in 88% chance of first round hit to vitals. As you noted, when precision potential opens up, so goes my maximum range. I can usually produce .5 MOA potential with a good bipod with solid rear support with a tuned rifle and ammo. This opens up to 1 MOA when using only a backpack. If I was breathing heavily, the potential could open up to 1.5 or even 2 MOA. The colors represent a max range based off estimated precision potential and cross wind uncertainty. The circles represent ideal hunting conditions (I still use a +-.5 MPH crosswind for determining a max range even in calm conditions…..I tend to find it's really not calm even when I think it is). I found most hunters I work with can produce a .75MOA field precision potential and most often I'll select a position where there is not greater than a +- 1.5 MPH full value cross wind uncertainty (if I can). This leaves a max range of around 750 to 790 yards for deer under these estimates. On some occasions the weather has been calm with the potential to bring up an estimated max range to the 900's. No 1000's yet….those good days have been reserved for elk!