HELP 2009 wyoming draw odds

[jorvin]

i'm having alittle trouble understanding the draw odd's on the WY DNR site? the only page i see that has a % on it is the nonres. perferance point page. (i don't have any points) i would like to apply for a 100% draw area near casper. can some one explain what and how i should be looking at this info thanks. hope to see you guy in WY this year jorge v.

 

[MachV]

If its goats your lookin for this map might help. The blue areas where sold out buy season opener...The pink areas still had doe/fawn tags and the white areas you can figure are 100% draw areas.
Good luck, goats are fun critters to hunt and about as easy/hard as you want to make it.

 

[Buffalobob]

You did a pretty good jobs of staying in the lines.

Jorvin

You need to download three other PDF files for NR draw odds. One is the Random draw, another is the Special Draw and the last is the doe/fawn draw. Special draw costs about $200 extra.

 

[gcamp54]

I'm not sure if this is what you mean or if you wanted something different but I look at the total quota for the type of tag I'm looking for, then check the 1st choice column. If the 1st choice column is less than the quota, it's a 100% chance for 1st choice. You can also calculate 2nd choice and 3rd choice in a similar fashion. If the first choice is greater than the quota, divide the quota by the number of 1st choice applicants, multiply by 100 and that equals %. Add the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd to get 2nd or 3rd choice and do the same to get those %'s. Most of the time I can just look at it and get a general idea of the %. It's not as good as the previous colored map but it works for me. I have spent hours looking through all the Wyoming data. I think it's a pretty good site for determining a hunt area.


Gordon

 

[jorvin]

thanks guy's i think i now understand the preferance point list. if the quota is 10 tags and they give 2 tags to the guy's with 3 point then they give 1 each to the 2 and 1 point guy's then the 5 tags to the guy's (or girls) with no points, that's 9 tags out of 10 or 100% draw. hope i make the draw. i really want to go with a buck tag

 

[MNbogboy]

jorvin, I believe you have been misled....If there was ten total non-resident tags available then 9 of would go into the preference point drawing (10% of available non-resident tags are allocated for the random draw)....The first 9 people with 3 points would draw the tags...the people with 2 or one points would only be eligible if there was less than 9 applicants with 3 points.....The applicants that did not draw would then be thrown in the random draw...Their odds would then be the same as anyone applying for the "one only" tag.....Preference points do not apply in the random drawing....

Hope this helps clarify this complicated issue,
Randy

 

[MNbogboy]

jorvin,
If you really want to draw a buck tag and you don't have any points, then the map provided by MachV shows the areas that 100% draw in 2009...It is best to apply for one of those areas to give you the best chance of drawing a buck tag....
Good luck,
Randy

 

[gcamp54]

I'm posting this now just to make sure I've got this right. I ran the numbers and it seems I'm on the right track. Please let me know if I'm not. The WY G&F regs state that the NR random draw gets 25% of the total allocation of tags for each area and tag type. Preference point drawing gets 75%. I added up all the NR random, special and PP quotas for a specific area. The Total quota shown on the random draw is 25% of the total I added. So it seems to me that the number shown on the random draw page for that hunt area is the total. I just take the number divide it by the number who put that area as their first choice and that is the percent of getting drawn on my first choice. I checked all the Freq asked questions and don't get a detailed explanation but my assumptions seem to be correct.

Gordon

 

[Buffalobob]

There is the NR special draw mixed in there somewhere. I forget if it is before the preference point draw or if it is between the Preference point and the random draw.

 

[gcamp54]

There is the NR special draw mixed in there somewhere. I forget if it is before the preference point draw or if it is between the Preference point and the random draw.

I didn't see anywhere in the regs that stated when the special draw occurs in relation to the others. Just that the NR random gets a total of 25% of each hunt area and tag type. When I did my calculation, I added all the NR preference, special, and random for a specific area and tag type (i.e. type 1). The amount given as the total quota on the random draw page for that same area and tag type equals 25 % within .5%. If that is correct then one can take the total quota on the NR random page at face value, I think. Unless I'm missing something which is very possible.

Gordon

 

[MNbogboy]

jorvin, please accept my goof....gcamp54 is correct in that 25% of the total available quota is set aside for the random draw not the 10% like I said....Therefore "2 only" tags would be in the random draw and 8 in the preference point draw if only 10 tags were the total quota....And I really don't know where the special draw tags are allocated either....

gcamp54's math is correct and it appears that the special drawing tags come from another quota all together...

Wyoming has a great site but their lottery odds presentation has room for improvement to make it easier to understand....

Randy

 

[Buffalobob]

nonresident Full price special elk, deer and antelope.
apply on Forms 17 (elk), 18 (deer) or 19 (antelope). Wyoming
Statute sets aside 40 percent of Nonresident Elk, 40 percent of
Nonresident Deer and 40 percent of Nonresident Antelope licenses for
applicants paying a higher fee. Applicants who pay the extra $480.00 for the
Special Full Price Elk and $240.00 for Special Full Price Deer and Special
Full Price Antelope, participate in a separate random computer drawing.

Well, this adds to the confusion.

 

[MNbogboy]

Ok, let's take one more stab at this....Buffalobob is very correct in the last post...When I calculated before I never took the "High Buck" tags into consideration....

I used area 27 for an example because all licenses except a couple of the special were sold...I also took numbers from 2008 & 2009 for comparison.

2008: 157 total NR tags were available.
Quotas 71 NR w/pref, 23 NR random, 48 NR special wpref, 15 NR special random

The special tags available were 63 which is 40% of total, 15 of which go into the random special drawing which represents a truncated 25%.....

The regular priced tags available were 94 where 23 of them belong to the random draw which is 25% of the regular priced total.

2009: 231 total NR tags were available.
Quotas 120 NR w/pref, 40 NR random, 54 NR special w/pref, 17 NR special rand

The special tags available were 92 which is a truncated 40% of the total. Of those 92 tags 54 were available for the NR special w/pref draw.
The remaining 17 (25%) were allocated to the NR special random draw.

The regular priced tags available were 160 of which 120 went to the NR w/pref points draw and the remaining 25% (40 tags went to the random draw)....

In my opinion we actually have two draws...Poor Man's and Rich Man's

Total Quota X .40 = Rich Man's total quota
Total Quota X .30 = Rich Man's preference point draw quota
Total Quota X .10 = Rich Man's random draw quota

Total Quota x .60 = Poor Man's total quota
Total Quota X .45 = Poor Man's preference point draw quota
Total Quota X .15 = Poor Man's random draw quota

Gordon, check out these numbers and correct me....I may be wrong again...

Also I most likely am going back to A27 this coming fall I have enough points
and I really enjoyed the area when I was there in 2007.....Have you made a decision yet?

TTL,
Randy