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Extreme Long Range Hunting & Shooting (ELR)
What is your hit probability on a 10" target at 1000 yards? First shot.
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<blockquote data-quote="LRNut" data-source="post: 2805061" data-attributes="member: 3230"><p>I have been busy for the last week but Quiet Texan, I appreciate your input as well as others. I hired a consulting company to help my firm and part of what they do is a series of personality tests, etc. We reviewed those today. I scored low on avoiding conflict - imagine that.</p><p></p><p>I shot with Bryan today at the rather pedestrian range of 500 yards; he put 10 shots into a 1.6" vertical group. The wind was blowing so his group was perhaps 2" wide, but he shot a paper target (but who knows, might have been able to see the bullet holes with his 60X scope). BTW, his ten shots had an SD of 1.5 and an extreme spread of 5 fps!</p><p></p><p>The point about knowing the range conditions is something I have commented on before - at the PRGC range I typically hold for about half to 3/4 of what the mirage tells me due to the berms on one side and the mountain on the left. When I am at my CO place, I know my holdoff at 620 is not what it would be on flat open ground because I am shooting into a bit of protected draw/small valley.</p><p></p><p>I am also a bit surprised no one mentioned whether they can see mirage. My ability to hit is much higher if I can see mirage. Give me a cloudy windy day, and it is a whole different ballgame.</p><p></p><p>I am a big fan of WEZ models and applying probabilities to outcomes, esp the wind. I think there are some folks who think with enough practice, they could hit a 10" target 95% of the time well past 1000 yards with first time shots. My point is at some point, TOF, wind variance, etc, means it is statistically impossible. I agree, big boomers help; I shoot Lapuas, an Edge, several 300 RUMs, and two 28Ns - with high BC bullets is is far easier than using a .308 but even these drift excessively in a 1 mph wind at 1000 yards. I recall an experiment Litz did with an array of anemometers downrange that recorded wind speeds: he observed that the wind often changed enough during the TOF to substantially degrade the probability of a hit.</p><p></p><p>After shooting every day in the wind at my CO place, my biggest surprise is hitting that 10" target in very strong winds is much easier at 400 or even 600 yards than it is at 1000 or farther in a wind less than 10 mph but that varies just a few miles per hour or even worse, fishtails from 11 to 1 oclock or 5 to 7.</p><p></p><p>I got to try a prototype device that used lasers to measure wind out to 500 and it was **** impressive, but even that device took about 2 seconds to read the wind - plenty of time for it to change since you clicked the button, but still, knowing exactly what it was 2 seconds ago was a huge advantage, esp if someone was calling the wind and you were looking at mirage via your parallax adjustment - if the mirage flattened more, shade more. But even then, I was shooting at only three different distances and as they called the wind, I didn't have to look at a kestrel or zap it with my SIG - I knew my holdoff instantly. Regrettably, it never left the prototype stage.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="LRNut, post: 2805061, member: 3230"] I have been busy for the last week but Quiet Texan, I appreciate your input as well as others. I hired a consulting company to help my firm and part of what they do is a series of personality tests, etc. We reviewed those today. I scored low on avoiding conflict - imagine that. I shot with Bryan today at the rather pedestrian range of 500 yards; he put 10 shots into a 1.6" vertical group. The wind was blowing so his group was perhaps 2" wide, but he shot a paper target (but who knows, might have been able to see the bullet holes with his 60X scope). BTW, his ten shots had an SD of 1.5 and an extreme spread of 5 fps! The point about knowing the range conditions is something I have commented on before - at the PRGC range I typically hold for about half to 3/4 of what the mirage tells me due to the berms on one side and the mountain on the left. When I am at my CO place, I know my holdoff at 620 is not what it would be on flat open ground because I am shooting into a bit of protected draw/small valley. I am also a bit surprised no one mentioned whether they can see mirage. My ability to hit is much higher if I can see mirage. Give me a cloudy windy day, and it is a whole different ballgame. I am a big fan of WEZ models and applying probabilities to outcomes, esp the wind. I think there are some folks who think with enough practice, they could hit a 10" target 95% of the time well past 1000 yards with first time shots. My point is at some point, TOF, wind variance, etc, means it is statistically impossible. I agree, big boomers help; I shoot Lapuas, an Edge, several 300 RUMs, and two 28Ns - with high BC bullets is is far easier than using a .308 but even these drift excessively in a 1 mph wind at 1000 yards. I recall an experiment Litz did with an array of anemometers downrange that recorded wind speeds: he observed that the wind often changed enough during the TOF to substantially degrade the probability of a hit. After shooting every day in the wind at my CO place, my biggest surprise is hitting that 10" target in very strong winds is much easier at 400 or even 600 yards than it is at 1000 or farther in a wind less than 10 mph but that varies just a few miles per hour or even worse, fishtails from 11 to 1 oclock or 5 to 7. I got to try a prototype device that used lasers to measure wind out to 500 and it was **** impressive, but even that device took about 2 seconds to read the wind - plenty of time for it to change since you clicked the button, but still, knowing exactly what it was 2 seconds ago was a huge advantage, esp if someone was calling the wind and you were looking at mirage via your parallax adjustment - if the mirage flattened more, shade more. But even then, I was shooting at only three different distances and as they called the wind, I didn't have to look at a kestrel or zap it with my SIG - I knew my holdoff instantly. Regrettably, it never left the prototype stage. [/QUOTE]
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What is your hit probability on a 10" target at 1000 yards? First shot.
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