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Rifles, Reloading, Optics, Equipment
Reloading
My long winded thoughts on annealing
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<blockquote data-quote="QuietTexan" data-source="post: 2382770" data-attributes="member: 116181"><p>Hold on, I didn't say that SD is a sixth of ES. I said that ES will approach six times population standard deviation. There's a very critical difference there. </p><p></p><p>I couldn't duplicate the graph, but if you run your simulation out to 1,000 shots, what's the Z(n) value?</p><p></p><p>To be fair I get where you're coming from and you're correct, just maybe not going in the direction I was headed towards. I think you actually somewhat proved my point in that for 100 rounds the true SD can be estimated as ES/5.1(ish), so using SD*6 for a maximum projected spread is more conservative.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Here's where I'm coming from: I'm not trying to estimate a population SD from ES of a sample (I think that's what you were showing? "divide the extreme spread by to get an estimate of SD of a normal distribution") - I'm trying to take the SD of a sample, use a confidence interval to predict the worst-case population SD, then from that estimate the maximum extreme spread for that population to plug into a ballistics solver for a projected vertical dispersion due to muzzle velocity variation for the rest of that loaded batch.</p><p></p><p>If I shoot a 10-shot SD of 8, then I can use 15 FPS as a projected worst-case population SD (95% CI), multiply that by 6 and project an ES of 90 FPS, and assume that I'll throw at least 5 shots outside of that 90FPS range. I'll run my ballistics on a 100 FPS spread around my average velocity, and I should shoot inside that predicted vertical dispersion because I've made a series of conservative estimates. There's 0.7 mil of difference at 1000 yards from 100 FPS decrease in the first 6.5CM load I pulled up in AB, that's 25" of vertical, meaning worst-case I should be able to hit an IPSC consistently with all 90 of my remained loaded rounds. Best case is I really do have an SD of 8, actual ES of 48, 0.3 mil difference, and I should be hitting the A Zone consistently with all 90 rounds. If I can really crush the loading of a batch and get a 10-shot ES of 3.5, I'm looking at a 0.2 mil variation - I'm crushing an 8" gong and my loads could shoot a 100-5X or better on an F-Class target (if I could do it.... statistics say 0% chance of that).</p><p></p><p>None of this accounts for wind, which is the real variable for hitting x-rings at 1000 yards, and why your loads need to minimize vertical dispersion to give you the most leeway possible for wind.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="QuietTexan, post: 2382770, member: 116181"] Hold on, I didn't say that SD is a sixth of ES. I said that ES will approach six times population standard deviation. There's a very critical difference there. I couldn't duplicate the graph, but if you run your simulation out to 1,000 shots, what's the Z(n) value? To be fair I get where you're coming from and you're correct, just maybe not going in the direction I was headed towards. I think you actually somewhat proved my point in that for 100 rounds the true SD can be estimated as ES/5.1(ish), so using SD*6 for a maximum projected spread is more conservative. Here's where I'm coming from: I'm not trying to estimate a population SD from ES of a sample (I think that's what you were showing? "divide the extreme spread by to get an estimate of SD of a normal distribution") - I'm trying to take the SD of a sample, use a confidence interval to predict the worst-case population SD, then from that estimate the maximum extreme spread for that population to plug into a ballistics solver for a projected vertical dispersion due to muzzle velocity variation for the rest of that loaded batch. If I shoot a 10-shot SD of 8, then I can use 15 FPS as a projected worst-case population SD (95% CI), multiply that by 6 and project an ES of 90 FPS, and assume that I'll throw at least 5 shots outside of that 90FPS range. I'll run my ballistics on a 100 FPS spread around my average velocity, and I should shoot inside that predicted vertical dispersion because I've made a series of conservative estimates. There's 0.7 mil of difference at 1000 yards from 100 FPS decrease in the first 6.5CM load I pulled up in AB, that's 25" of vertical, meaning worst-case I should be able to hit an IPSC consistently with all 90 of my remained loaded rounds. Best case is I really do have an SD of 8, actual ES of 48, 0.3 mil difference, and I should be hitting the A Zone consistently with all 90 rounds. If I can really crush the loading of a batch and get a 10-shot ES of 3.5, I'm looking at a 0.2 mil variation - I'm crushing an 8" gong and my loads could shoot a 100-5X or better on an F-Class target (if I could do it.... statistics say 0% chance of that). None of this accounts for wind, which is the real variable for hitting x-rings at 1000 yards, and why your loads need to minimize vertical dispersion to give you the most leeway possible for wind. [/QUOTE]
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My long winded thoughts on annealing
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