Bryan,
Your analysis here pretty much shows this phenomenon can't be caused by epicyclic swerve.
A while back, in another post, you stated (words to the effect) that the smaller group at longer range phenom may be related to sight picture and target distance. Last fall I accidentally discovered how amazingly sensitive point of impact is to very small variations in point of aim. (There's some interesting physics there, I'll bet.) I was shooting at a target with a fairly large aiming shape, and I could not get groups smaller than 1 MOA, where I had shot tighter groups before. Finally I switched to a target with a small red dot, where my crosshair thickness was only about 1/3 of the dot diameter at 100 m. All of a sudden I could shoot 1/3 to 1/2 MOA with the same rifle, ammo, and support setup (prone, bipod, rear bag). The reason was that I could now see the tiny aiming variations, where before, my crosshairs were adrift in a much larger visual space.
Here's my theory: If someone uses a relatively large target aiming point size, moving the same target to longer range will cut the angular size of the aiming point relative to crosshair thickness, making it easier to see the tiny aiming variations that must be controlled for precision shooting. Given the right conditions, the result will be a smaller group at longer range. I think the best situation is when the aiming dot is only slightly larger than the crosshair thickness. Then you can see incredibly small aim point variations.